2024 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date: Expert who called 10 Derby-Oaks Doubles shares picks

Entering the 2024 Kentucky Derby, the favorite has been victorious in 37.6% of the previous 149 races. However, we’re on a five-year streak of the favorite coming up short, which followed a six-year streak of the favored horse winning the race. If the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite in Sierra Leone (7-1) comes up short, then this drought would tie for the second-longest in Kentucky Derby history where the favorite has not won the race.

Kentucky Derby 150 takes place on Saturday, May 4 from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. After Sierra Leone, the only other horse with single-digit Kentucky Derby odds 2024 is  Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness at 16-1. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year. 

Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s one of the top favorites at 9-1. The horse was crowned the 2-year-old American Champion after claiming the Breeders’ Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths. However, that’s his only victory over three stakes starts, and his speed noticeably regressed in his last race. After posting a 106 HRN speed figure in the Breeders’ Juvenile win, Fierceness followed that up with a 94 speed figure en route to a third-place finish at the Holy Bull Stakes in February.

While Fierceness is trained by two-time derby winner Todd Pletcher, it’s taken Pletcher 63 derby starters to get those victories. None of Pletcher’s last 11 Kentucky Derby starters have even hit the board, and there are questions regarding Fierceness’ pedigree in a race of this length. His father, City of Lights, failed to win in his lone race attempt longer than 1 1/8 miles, while his mother, Nonna Bella, never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles. Demling doesn’t even have Fierceness finishing in the money, so there are far better values for your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Honor Marie, even though he’s a 35-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The colt won two of his first four career races, including securing a victory in his first Grade II stakes start. Honor Marie won the 2023 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on November 25 shortly after winning at Churchill Downs on Sept. 29 in his first career race.

Honor Marie should feel plenty comfortable at Churchill Downs with three of his first four career races coming there. He has two wins and a second-place showing at Churchill Downs, so that comfort has also translated into success. Honor Marie is the son of Honor Code, who won two of four Grade I races he ran in and placed third at the 2015 Breeders’ Cup, which was won by American Pharoah, one of the greatest horses of all time. If you’re looking for an early longshot with value, Demling suggests taking Honor Marie. See which other horses to back at SportsLine. 

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on another massive longshot who has the pedigree to win the Run for the Roses and turn heads on Derby Day. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which massive underdog is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures

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