There is officially only one spot left to be clinched in the AFC playoffs. Going into Week 17, there were two spots up for grabs, but the Los Angeles Chargers grabbed one of those with their 40-7 win over the New England Patriots on Saturday.
With the Chargers now in, that means there are now four teams vying for the AFC’s final playoff spot: The Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals.
The Broncos are currently in the driver’s seat: To clinch the final playoff spot, all they have to do is win one of their final two games (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs).
As for the other three teams, they’re all long shots right now, but one of them could get in if a few things go their way over the final two weeks.
Let’s check out what needs to happen for each team to get in.
What Bengals need to get to the playoffs:
- Bengals win out (vs. Broncos, at Steelers)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
- Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
- Dolphins lose at least one more game (at Browns, at Jets)
Verdict: If the Bengals can beat the Broncos on Saturday, they’ll still be alive in the playoff race heading into Week 18, no matter what else happens around the NFL. That being said, the Bengals are in a tough spot here for two reasons: For one, the Chiefs will likely be benching their starters in Week 18, which will make it much easier for Denver to win. And two, the Colts have the easiest remaining strength of schedule with games against the 2-13 Giants and 3-12 Jaguars. However, the Colts won’t have Anthony Richardson, who’s been ruled out for Sunday’s game against New York. Joe Flacco will be getting the start in his place.
What Colts need to get to the playoffs:
- Colts win out (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
- Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
Verdict: If this happens, the Colts, Dolphins and Broncos will all finish at 9-8 and although the Colts lost to the Broncos, they’d still get in the playoffs thanks to the Dolphins. With Miami at 9-8, that would create a three-way tiebreaker and the Colts would win that (The Colts would also win a four-way tiebreaker if the Bengals were to also win out in this scenario).
What Dolphins need to get to the playoffs:
- Dolphins win out (at Browns, at Jets)
- Broncos lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
- Colts lose at least one more game (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
Verdict: In a head-to-head situation with the Broncos, the Dolphins would get in over Denver based on having a better conference record. The Dolphins would also get in if they end up in a three-way tie with the Bengals and Broncos at 9-8. The problem for the Dolphins is that they likely won’t have Tua Tagovailoa for Sunday’s game against Cleveland. Tua, who has been battling a hip injury, has been downgraded to doubtful, which means it’s very likely that Tyler Huntley will be the starter.
If the Broncos beat the Bengals on Saturday, then you can throw each of these scenarios out the window because a win over Cincinnati will clinch the AFC’s final playoff spot for Denver.
