The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros agreed to a four-player blockbuster trade on Friday that sends All-Star outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago and third baseman Isaac Paredes among the players going to Houston.
Whenever a big deal goes down, you can count on one thing at CBS Sports: the trade grades treatment. That means analysis on each involved player, as well as thoughts on the larger circumstances. It also means me attempting to summarize my feelings in the form of a single letter grade.
You can find all of that below. First, though, here is the trade in whole:
Now, on to the reason you clicked.
Cubs: A
The Cubs are coming off a terribly disappointing year that saw them finish 10 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. How does a team ensure that won’t happen again? The Cubs’ answer: making an opportunistic trade for one of the sport’s 15 best hitters.
Truthfully, that description might undersell the 27-year-old Tucker. Over the last three seasons, he ranks in the top 10 in OPS+ and in the top 15 in Wins Above Replacement. He would fare even better in both statistics were it not for the broken shin he suffered last summer that cost him significant time during what would’ve been a career year.
Tucker is an offensive force with a splendid combination of barrel and zone control. He doesn’t offer elite top-end exit velocities, but he routinely hits the ball hard and on a line. He’s averaged 28 home runs per pop over the last four seasons, and in the last two years he’s almost walked as often as he’s struck out. It would be perfectly fair to describe him more as a natural hitter with power than a power hitter.
Tucker has also shown himself to be an effective and efficient threat on the basepaths, having swiped 66 bags (on 75 attempts) over the last three years. That athleticism lends itself to him generally playing an above-average corner outfield. Add it all together, and the Cubs just landed themselves someone I would rank as their best player.
The question for the Cubs is now what comes next — both within this offseason and with Tucker. I have to believe Chicago will find a way to trade Cody Bellinger over the coming days, as a means of freeing up some money and optimizing the roster. Would the Cubs then be willing to turn around and give Tucker a long-term extension worth whatever it takes (surely at least $30 million annually)? That would be a logical follow-up step for a Cubs team that has a lot of money coming off the books after 2026.
The Cubs have time to figure all that out. For now, they should celebrate making a move that shows they’re all about atoning for the failures of last season.
Astros: B+
Times are changing in Houston. Not only is Kyle Tucker on his way to Chicago, but the inclusion of Paredes in this deal would seem to indicate that franchise mainstay Alex Bregman is on his way out as a free agent, too. Where that leaves left-hander Framber Valdez, himself under team control for just one more season, is to be determined.
Your thoughts on this trade will align with how you feel about the Astros’ unwillingness to sign Tucker long term. If you’re OK with a large-market squad bailing a year early on a superstar, then you can rest easy knowing they received at least fair value back in this trade. If you’re not — and mind you, the Astros have only four players locked in on guaranteed deals beyond the 2026 season, and only three beyond 2027 — then you probably weren’t going to appreciate or co-sign any deal that general manager Dana Brown made here. Both are defensible positions.
I do think the Astros had some non-financial incentive to make a move like this. Houston’s farm system has suffered from all the years of late or forfeited selections and win-now trades. That matters because it’s left the Astros with an aging core that’s growing more expensive with each passing year. At some point, they were going to need to infuse their team with youth to avoid a collective decline. However unpleasant you may find this move, it should add two younger bats to the lineup over the coming year. (To wit, the 25-year-old Paredes is projected to be the youngest member of Houston’s starting lineup… and he has nearly four years of major-league service time.)
There’s also this: you can make a real argument that Smith is better than any of the four prospects the Chicago White Sox received for left-hander Garrett Crochet — and that’s with the Astros also returning two other players who have already enjoyed MLB success and have years of team control remaining apiece.
Smith, 21, played himself into the 14th slot in the 2024 draft beginning with a strong showing in the 2023 Cape Cod League. A remade swing allowed him to slice into his strikeout rate, dropping it from 28.7% the previous year to 15%. Smith then hit the ground running as a pro, batting .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs and two stolen bases over 32 games. He even closed out the season with a Double-A cameo, suggesting he could — emphasis on could — reach the majors during the 2025 campaign.
Smith combines above-average strength and patience from the right side, giving him middle-of-the-order potential. Defensively, scouts have questioned his ability to stick at third base for the long haul. It’s at least possible that he ends up shifting down the defensive spectrum to another corner. Should that come to pass, there’ll be more pressure on him making good on his offensive promise.
Paredes, 25, being on the move for a second time in six months speaks to the disconnect between his production (70 home runs, 119 OPS+ since 2022) and the industry’s unease with his profile. His exit velocity is abysmal for someone with those power marks, with his average ranking among the 15 worst in the majors. Yet Paredes has mastered the One Neat Trick necessary to outperform his meager strength indicators: he’s the master at pulling the ball in the air.
No qualified MLB hitter last season pulled a higher percentage of fly balls than Paredes’ 23.6%. What that allowed him to do, at least during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, was take advantage of the Tropicana Field outfield arrangement and stack up home runs that wouldn’t have been home runs in any other ballpark. The good news for Paredes is that he seems well suited to launch ball after ball into Houston’s Crawford Boxes, in turn breathing new life into his game after a failed stint with the Cubs.
Wesneski, 27, has split parts of the last three seasons between the rotation and bullpen, compiling a 3.93 ERA (106 ERA+) and a 3.05 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has an east-and-west arsenal, led by a standout swing-and-miss sweeper. I suppose it’s possible the Astros entertain using Wesneski as a starter, depending on their plans for the rest of the offseason. He has struggled with the home-run ball as a big-league pitcher, however, and he missed two months last season with a strained forearm. Whatever role the Astros deploy him in, I think he’ll provide them with some value.
