Like the Washington Commanders, I am getting hot down the stretch.
I went 3-0-1 with my against-the-spread picks last week and 3-1 with my straight-up picks. That ups my ATS season record to 132-143-7 and my straight-up record to 184-98-0.
Why did it take so long to get it turned around?
For one, I like picking dogs. And the dogs didn’t cover as much in the second half of the season. They did over the weekend. The only favorite who covered was the Kansas City Chiefs with our numbesr, but the late safety made some Texans backers a winner.
So I am sticking to the plan. I am going back to the dogs this weekend for the championship games.
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo)
The Commanders are the surprise team left in final four. They got here by upsetting the top-seeded Lions on the road last week. In that game, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was special. He lit up the Lions defense. But this is a much bigger challenge.
The Eagles, who beat the Rams last week, came on strong down the stretch on defense as they acclimated to the Vic Fangio system, which will challenge Daniels. The Eagles play a lot of zone, which might be a good thing since Daniels carves up man coverage against a blitz. He will be forced to be patient here, which will put more pressure on his offensive line. They have to block defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who is a game wrecker.
The Philadelphia offense will once again be keyed by running back Saquon Barkley. He ran for 2,000 yards this season and has rolled up big numbers in the playoffs. In the two games against the Commanders this season, Barkley had 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns in those games. They couldn’t stop him.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is banged up with a knee injury suffered last week in the victory over the Rams, which could impact his ability to pull it on the zone reads. That could change how Washington defends Barkley.
This game will be about Daniels and his ability to make plays against the Fangio defense. Watching Kliff Kingsbury call plays will be fun to watch. I think Daniels plays well. So well in fact I think the Commanders will pull off an upset. Daniels will become the first rookie quarterback to take his team to a Super Bowl.
Pick: Commanders 27, Eagles 26
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, stream on Paramount+)
This is all about Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. The two quarterbacks have faced off three times previously in the playoffs and Mahomes has won all three. But their stats are close, with Mahomes having eight touchdowns and no picks to Allen’s seven and one.
The Chiefs beat the Bills earlier this season, but it’s those playoff failures that hang over this game for the Bills. They will spend all week hearing about “13 seconds” and Tyler Bass missing a game-tying field goal in last year’s loss. How do they get past it?
This team seems different than in past years. It is built for the playoffs. They don’t turn it over and Allen is playing his best football, even if his numbers aren’t as gaudy.
Mahomes also didn’t put up big numbers this year, but he’s come on lately as the offense has gotten healthier. It’s also the playoffs. We know that he will get the ball to Travis Kelce, who was outstanding last week.
That has to be the focal point for the Bills defense. Both teams want to run the ball, which will be the key to this one — even if on paper it looks like a classic Mahomes-Allen battle.
Allen is the better of the two with his legs, which gives the Bills a bit of an advantage. But Mahomes can move when need be.
The Chiefs have a major edge playing at home and they also have the playoff psychological edge as well. That usually matters. But, like I said, this Bills team is different. Allen is different.
It’s his time. The Bills won’t have to hear about “13 seconds” anymore as Allen gets this group to the Super Bowl.
Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 23
