Celtics vs. Heat odds, score prediction, time, line: 2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets by proven model

After cruising through the Eastern Conference during the regular season, the Boston Celtics will get down to business when they battle the Miami Heat in Game 1 of their best-of-seven first-round series in the 2024 NBA playoffs on Sunday. The Heat (46-36) earned the eighth seed on Friday night with a 112-91 win over the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament. Miami, which finished second in the Southeast Division, is 24-17 on the road. The Celtics (64-18), who finished 14 games ahead of second-seeded New York Knicks in the East, will look to avenge last year’s conference finals loss to the eighth-seeded Heat. Boston is looking to win its first NBA title since 2007-2008. Miami will be without small forward Jimmy Butler, one of its top players, who is set to miss several weeks with a sprained MCL.

Tipoff from TD Garden in Boston is set for 1 p.m. ET. Boston leads the all-time series 100-73, but Miami holds a 20-17 series edge in the postseason. The Celtics are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 208.5. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Celtics:

  • Heat vs. Celtics spread: Boston -13.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 208.5 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Miami +673, Boston -1000
  • MIA: The Heat have won 28 of their last 49 away games (+21.15 units on the ML)
  • BOS: The Celtics have covered the first half spread in 58 of their last 85 games (+27.35 units)
  • Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is led by small forward Jayson Tatum. The seventh-year veteran played in 74 games this season, all starts, and averaged 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists and one steal in 35.7 minutes. Tatum is one of four NBA players to average at least 25 points, eight rebounds and four assists in each of the last three seasons. He has knocked down at least six 3-pointers in a team-high five games this season, and has accomplished that feat 33 times in his career.

Shooting guard Jaylen Brown has reached double-digit scoring in 25 consecutive games and registered five double-doubles and one triple-double on the year. His best game came against the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets, when he scored 41 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in a 115-109 loss on March 7. In three games against the Heat this season, he is averaging 21.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.7 steals. In 70 games, all starts, he is averaging 23 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals in 33.5 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Point guard Tyler Herro narrowly missed a triple-double in Friday’s play-in win over the Bulls. In 33 minutes of action, Herro poured in 24 points, while adding 10 rebounds and nine assists. In three regular-season games against Boston in 2023-2024, Herro averaged 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He and Butler were the leading scorers on the team, both averaging 20.8 points. Herro also averaged 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 33.5 minutes.

Center Bam Adebayo also made his presence felt on Friday, scoring 13 points, while adding four rebounds, four assists and two blocks in the win over the Bulls. He recorded a double-double in Wednesday’s 105-104 play-in loss to Philadelphia, scoring 10 points, while grabbing 12 rebounds. In 71 games, all starts, he averaged 19.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals in 34 minutes. He has had good success against Boston throughout his career. In 22 games, he is averaging 17.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 steals and one block in 32 minutes. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Heat vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 208 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,600 on its NBA picks this season, and find out. 

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