The first edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings was released Tuesday night with undefeated Oregon opening at No. 1 in the initial year of the expanded 12-team field. Off to a dominant start this season with wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Illinois, the Ducks sit in the top spot seeking to make their second playoff appearance — first since the four-team field debuted after the 2014 season.
Seven of 10 teams ranked No. 1 in a season’s initial CFP Rankings ultimately reached the playoff in the four-team era with Mississippi State (2014), Tennessee (2022) and Ohio State (2023) being the exceptions. With eight more spots in the field this season, Oregon sits in a strong position at 9-0 more than midway through the campaign.
Ohio State, Georgia, Miami (FL) and Texas round out the rest of the top five.
The top Group of Five program in Tuesday’s release is Boise State at No. 12. With the 12-team playoff model granting automatic bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, the Broncos stand in pole position to earn that opportunity should they win their league. Army West Point is the only other Group of Five team in the initial CFP Rankings at No. 25.
Let’s take a look at the entire CFP Rankings top 25 along with the projected bracket seedings for the first 12 teams. Check out analysis by bowls expert Jerry Palm, which will be added below shortly.
College Football Playoff Rankings, Nov. 5
- Oregon (9-0) | Projected No. 1 seed
- Ohio State (7-1) | Projected No. 5 seed
- Georgia (7-1) | Projected No. 2 seed
- Miami (FL) (9-0) | Projected No. 3 seed
- Texas (7-1) | Projected No. 6 seed
- Penn State (7-1) | Projected No. 7 seed
- Tennessee (7-1) | Projected No. 8 seed
- Indiana (9-0) | Projected No. 9 seed
- BYU (8-0) | Projected No. 4 seed
- Notre Dame (7-1) | Projected No. 10 seed
- Alabama (6-2) | Projected No. 11 seed
- Boise State (7-1) | Projected No. 12 seed
- SMU (8-1)
- Texas A&M (7-2)
- LSU (6-2)
- Ole Miss (7-2)
- Iowa State (7-1)
- Pittsburgh (7-1)
- Kansas State (7-2)
- Colorado (6-2)
- Washington State (7-1)
- Louisville (6-3)
- Clemson (6-2)
- Missouri (6-2)
- Army West Point (8-0)
Analysis by bowl expert Jerry Palm
The first-round games in the projected CFP bracket are very enticing. Boise State would visit Ohio State; Alabama would travel to Texas in an SEC matchup that was not played during the regular season; Notre Dame would head to Penn State; and Indiana would play at Tennessee in a battle of high-flying offenses.
I don’t believe there were any egregious rankings, even if they did not match my predictions. You saw the importance of head-to-head results, even at the bottom of the rankings where 6-3 Louisville was ahead of 6-2 Clemson after the Cardinals’ victory at Clemson on Saturday. The only team in the rankings rated lower than a team it beat is Alabama, which is eight spots behind Georgia.
You also saw the importance of strength of schedule, which is holding back teams like Indiana, Washington State and Army.
The SEC has the most teams in the rankings with eight, which is all of the conference teams that have no more than two losses overall. In fact, the only team in the rankings with more than two losses is Louisville. Sixteen of the teams in this week’s rankings still have a chance to get to at least a tiebreaker to play for their respective conference titles.
Given how many teams are still in play with two or fewer losses, it seems very unlikely that we will have a three-loss team in the CFP unless it’s a loss in a conference championship game. That makes Alabama at LSU this week most likely a playoff elimination game.
