First base is the hot position on the Hot Stove right now, with Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Naylor and Carlos Santana all changing hands a day after Christian Walker signed with the Astros.
Scott White and Chris Towers are here to guide you through the transactions of real consequence for Fantasy Baseball. This is the place where we’ll react to them as they happen, breaking down what they mean for 2025 drafts.
So bookmark this page and keep checking back. As the news comes in, you’ll be glad you have one stop for keeping track of it all.
Jesus Luzardo traded to Phillies
While Philadelphia is considered to be a much tougher place to pitch than Miami, it’s all academic until we’re sure Luzardo is healthy again. The left-hander didn’t pitch after June 16 last because of a lumbar stress reaction and wasn’t particularly effective for the 12 starts he did make, averaging 1.5 mph less on his fastball than in 2023. It wasn’t a total collapse, however. His slider and changeup both still had better than a 40 percent whiff rate, and his 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate would have ranked ninth among qualifiers. But he tends to get hit hard and, judging from the ups and downs in his career, probably can’t afford to pitch in a diminished state. I ranked him just outside my top 60 starting pitchers prior to this trade, and the tradeoff between venue and supporting cast is probably a wash.
Unfortunately, this trade likely ends Andrew Painter’s candidacy for a rotation spot this spring. An injury to Luzardo or someone else could reopen the door, of course, but as things currently stand, the Phillies have a strong 1-5 without Painter. The 21-year-old lit up the Arizona Fall League in his return from Tommy John surgery and is among the top pitching prospects in baseball, but a delayed deployment might be in his best interest anyway. As for what the Marlins are getting back in this deal, the biggest piece is shortstop Staryn Caba, a top-100 prospect according to some publications. His glove is the real selling point, though, with much development still ahead of him as a hitter. –Scott White
Nathaniel Lowe traded to the Nationals
So, in the end, it’s Jake Burger replacing Lowe in Texas, as the Rangers cleared up an apparent log jam at first base with this move. It makes the path to everyday playing time a bit clearer for both Lowe and Burger, which is the biggest takeaway here. I’ve been out on Burger at his 120-ish ADP in NFC drafts even before he was sent to Texas, but this does make that pessimism a little harder to justify, since the Rangers don’t really have an obvious alternative at first base/DH if Burger gets off to a slow start. He’s a solid low-end starter at the first base position for Fantasy, with big power upside and decent run production potential in a very good Rangers lineup, though given his poor on-base skills and defense, I still think there’s an extremely low floor here.
Lowe is back in the CI discussion with this trade. The Nationals were reportedly in on some of the free agent first basemen, but will settle for Lowe, who had a decent season in 2024 despite hitting for little power. His 121 wRC was actually the second-best of his career, but Lowe is probably a better hitter in real life than in Fantasy given his limited power and average upside. He has hit right around .265 in three of the past four seasons, with a walk rate north of 12% and between 16 and 18 homers; the exception is 2022, when he had 27 homers and a .302 average. That’s the clear outlier here, and Lowe is probably best served hitting at the top of the lineup rather than in a run production spot. He’s a decent CI option – better in OBP leagues – but he’s a fringe starter unless he taps into that power a bit more consistently. –Chris Towers
Carlos Santana signs with Guardians
And so the other shoe falls. Not long after shipping Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks, the Guardians sign his replacement in Carlos Santana, who of course has a long history in Cleveland and would appear to have something left in the tank heading into his age-39 season. Of course, at that age, you halfway expect his production to drop off a cliff, so it’s a little surprising to see a contender with so little margin for error put so much trust in him. Theoretically, Kyle Manzardo could shift from DH to first base if Santana falters, but this signing at least confirms that Santana will have a full-time job to begin 2025. And considering he was last year’s 18th-best first baseman in 5×5 leagues and 13th-best in points leagues (always his better format), he’s likely (or at least halfway likely) to be of some use in Fantasy even if he’s not a prime draft target. –Scott White
Josh Naylor traded to Diamondbacks
Whoa. There were reports Naylor might be on the move this offseason, and the Diamondbacks are a logical destination given that they just lost Christian Walker in free agency. But the return (right-hander Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance Round B draft pick) seems a little light for a 27-year-old who emerged as an All-Star and impact Fantasy bat last year, even if he’s poised to become a free agent at season’s end.
In any case, this move should theoretically hurt Naylor given that Chase Field rates as the worst home run venue for left-handed hitters over the past three seasons, but Statcast estimates that he’d have hit just two fewer home runs if he played every game there last season and that he’d actually have one more if he played every game there for his entire career. Other left-handed batters like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte (a switch-hitter, technically) have made it work, so I’d say Naylor’s stock holds steady with this deal. I also think he has some untapped upside given the mismatch between his consistently low strikeout rate and typically blah batting average. Some of that mismatch is owed to his tendency to put the ball on the ground, but his 2023 season, when he hit .308 with a .293 xBA, is the dream. I ranked Naylor sixth among first basemen — just ahead of the man he’s replacing, Walker — prior to this trade, and I’m inclined to rank him there still. –Scott White
Paul Goldschmidt signs with the Yankees
The Yankees are betting on a bounceback from the 37-year-old Goldschmidt, who figures to be the team’s everyday first baseman on the one-year deal. And Goldschmidt still does some things very well, sporting well above average quality of contact metrics in 2024, including an 82nd percentile average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate of 49.6%. Goldschmidt’s expected wOBA on contact in 2024 was .423, the worst mark he has posted since 2016, but still solidly above average – and it should play up even more in Yankee Stadium, a better park for power than his old home in St. Louis.
The problem is, Goldschmidt might be at the point where he has to cheat to get to that power he once came by so easily. His strikeout rate ballooned to a career-high 26.5%, with his underlying plate discipline metrics all moving in the wrong direction, too – he was making worse swing decisions and making contact less often when he swung. That’s a bad sign, and one you can’t necessarily bet on improving as he nears 40.
This is a mild park upgrade and a solid lineup upgrade for Goldschmidt, and it probably improves his chances of that bounce-back season the Yankees are hoping for. And, for what it’s worth, Goldschmidt was better down the stretch, sporting a .379 xwOBA over his final 100 PA, compared to a .329 mark for the season as a whole — and he cut his strikeout rate to 23% in September, too. Goldschmidt is no longer a good bet as your starting 1B in Fantasy, but as a corner infielder in a Roto league, he’s a decent bet around the 15th round or so in drafts. –Chris Towers
Christian Walker signs with the Astros
The Astros continued the on-the-fly remake of their corner infield – and seemingly foreclosed the possibility of a reunion with free agent Alex Bregman – with the signing of Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. It feels like a surprisingly light number for a player of Walker’s caliber until you remember he will be 34 a few days after Opening Day, though he hasn’t shown any real signs of aging so far. Walker has actually been remarkably consistent over the past three seasons, posting an OPS+ between 125 and 121, with a triple-slash line of .251/.335/.468 in 2024. An oblique injury during the summer limited him to 130 games, but he was otherwise on pace for another 30-homer season, finishing with 26, along with 84 RBI and 72 runs.
Walker is the platonic ideal of a solid starting Fantasy first baseman — hardly a superstar, but not someone you ever have to think about upgrading from — though his value to the Astros is a little greater thanks to three consecutive Gold Gloves. A right-handed hitter, Walker isn’t quite as likely to benefit from the short porch in left field as new teammate Isaac Paredes, but it’s still a nice landing spot for him – if Walker had played every game in Houston over the past three seasons, he would have hit 96 homers, a slight upgrade over the 93 he would have hit playing every game in Arizona. It’s not necessarily a lineup upgrade leaving the league leader in runs last season, but the proximity to Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez makes it a fine landing spot, too.
Walker is at the age where you can reasonably downgrade him for some age-related risk, but we just haven’t seen any sign of that coming – in fact, 2024 saw his highest average exit velocity since a brief 2017 cameo. Walker has been going off draft boards around 100th overall in early drafts, and he belongs in that third tier of first baseman – ahead of Spencer Steer and Vinnie Pasquantino, while whether you take him ahead of Josh Naylor or Triston Casas will mostly come down to personal taste. –Chris Towers
Max Kepler signs with Phillies
Kepler has long been a player who Fantasy Baseballers have believed was oh so close to finding another gear — so long, in fact, that this move to one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball may be coming too late. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and saw a sharp decline in production last season after hitting .260 with 24 homers and an .816 OPS in 2023.
But 2024 also saw him hit a ball as hard as 115.4 mph, tying a career-high and putting him in the top 5 percent in baseball. His strikeout rate came down a little, and his zone-contact rate was still verging on 90 percent, an elite mark. Not bad! On the other hand, his walk rate was a career-low and his chase rate a career-high, so I suspect he was pressing to make up for the time lost to knee injuries. Or perhaps he never felt quite right. In any case, if the knee issues are behind him (a big if, granted), he has a reasonable chance to bounce back in his new surroundings, offering the upside for 25-30 homers as long as he plays every day. And you can get him late even in five-outfielder leagues. –Scott White
Michael Soroka signs with Nationals
I hesitated to include this transaction in the Offseason Tracker because Soroka is such an afterthought in Fantasy, but the fact the Nationals signed him to work as a starter and are paying him a healthy sum to do so ($9 million) bolsters my belief that he may be a sleeper of sorts. He’s had to reinvent himself after two Achilles surgeries and nearly three full years out of baseball, but his efforts began to bear fruit over his final 15 appearances last season. Working as a multi-inning reliever, he put together a 1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an incredible 15.3 K/9 rate.
He was more of a sinkerballer prior to the injuries and had fared well with that approach, but he’s learned to lean heavily on his slider, throwing it more than 40 percent of the time during that successful stretch. Both it and his fastball also have a different movement profile than before. Whether those fixes translate over a starter’s workload remains to be seen, but the Nationals are showing enough confidence that we should at least consider the possibility as our drafts are winding down. –Scott White
Cody Bellinger traded to Yankees
It’s a remarkably straightforward trade: Bellinger (and $5 million) for middle reliever Cody Poteet. Yep, that’s it. I’m not sure anything has fundamentally changed about Bellinger between 2023 and 2024. His production was worse, of course, as he dipped from an .881 OPS in 2023 to a .751 mark in 2024. But the fundamentals of his game didn’t change very much. It’s not unreasonable to expect better in 2025 now that he’s going to be calling Yankee Stadium home for half of his games. To find out why, check out my full-length article. –Chris Towers
Tomoyuki Sugano signs with Orioles
The 35-year-old Sugano has had an illustrious career in Japan, twice winning that league’s version of the Cy Young award and also capturing four ERA titles. One look at last year’s numbers would suggest he’s not slowing down, but the radar gun tells a different story, clocking his fastball in the low 90s rather than the mid-90s. Clearly, he’s made it work for him, though, through pinpoint control and a confident mix of six different pitches, the splitter being the best. Other pitchers from the not-so-distant past have come over from Japan to make an impact in their mid-30s, with Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma being two prominent examples, and the Orioles’ $13 million commitment to Sugano suggests they’re confident he can do the same. Understand, though, that if he succeeds, it would be in an understated, Michael Wacha sort of way rather than as a big bat-misser. –Scott White
Jeffrey Springs traded to Athletics
Springs returned from Tommy John surgery to make only seven starts last season before elbow fatigue set in, shutting him down for the final month or so. Even when he was healthy (presuming he actually was), his average fastball velocity was down about 2 mph, and seeing as a contender just traded him to a non-contender, it’s reasonable to wonder if he’s damaged goods. The Rays got back a couple interesting players in return, but no top prospects. The most notable is Joe Boyle, a right-hander with scintillating stuff but massive control problems that he still hasn’t figured out by age 25.
Having said all that, Springs did perform reasonably well even with the diminished velocity in those seven starts and had a 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in his transition to the starting role in 2022. There’s upside here, but between the poor supporting cast and considerable health concerns, Springs drops outside of the top 60 starting pitchers for me. –Scott White
Kyle Tucker traded to Cubs
It’s fair to say this one rises to the level of blockbuster. Anytime a genuine first-round Fantasy talent is on the move, that’s the case. But what it means for Tucker’s own Fantasy value is minimal. Rather than the headliner, it’s the downstream effects of this deal that matter most for Fantasy. You may wonder what happens to Isaac Paredes, one of the players headed to the Astros, or Pete Crow-Armstrong, the player Tucker is theoretically replacing in Chicago. You may also wonder who takes over at third base for the Cubs. Well, I have the answers for you, and you can read all about them in my full-length article. –Scott White
Devin Williams traded to Yankees
The Yankees addressed their bullpen needs in the biggest way possible, acquiring former Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star closer Devin Williams in a trade with the Brewers. Williams pitched just 21.2 innings last season after recovering from a back injury, but he looked like his typically dominant self when healthy, putting up a 1.25 ERA while striking out 43% of opposing batters. Williams will step into the ninth inning role for a team that figures to still easily clear 90 wins despite losing Soto, making him one of the best bets for saves in Fantasy, and an easy top-three closer. And he might be No. 1 or No. 2, given his strikeout upside.
Of course, it’s bad news for Luke Weaver, the breakout star of the Yankees bullpen in the second half of 2024. Weaver stepped up amid Clay Holmes’ struggles, eventually becoming the team’s go-to fireman in September and then the playoffs. He’ll still be Fantasy relevant in deeper categories leagues thanks to his 100-strikeout upside and contingent value as the No. 2 man on a good team, but he goes from a potential top-12 closer to just a ratios specialist and win/save vulture for as long as Williams is healthy. That can still be a valuable role – Williams was a viable Fantasy option himself back when he was setting Josh Hader up – but he now needs something to go wrong for Williams to have must-start upside.
On the Brewers side of things, this should push Trevor Megill back to Fantasy relevance. He wasn’t nearly as dominant as Williams when he filled in as the team’s closer last season, but he more than got the job done, putting up a 2.72 ERA and 1.014 WHIP with 50 strikeouts in 46.1 innings of work. He isn’t the most proven closer around, but he did close out 21 games in 2024, and should be at the front of the line, ahead of the likes of Joel Payamps. Megill is a top-20 closer for sure, and worth drafting in all formats for saves. –Chris Towers
Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin traded to the Brewers
Cortes is a perfectly viable No. 4 starter, the kind the Brewers tend to build their whole rotation out of when they don’t have a home-grown ace to lean on. When things are going right, he does a good job limiting damage on contact, while garnering enough strikeouts to have stretches as a legitimate must-start pitcher. But he doesn’t have premium stuff even at his best, and some nagging injuries over the past couple of years have kept him far from his best, which made him more of a low-end option for Fantasy for much of last season. In another mediocre park for pitching, Cortes is probably just a late-round target, though at least this trade does seem to guarantee him a rotation spot — something he may not have had in New York.
Durbin isn’t much of a prospect by traditional ranks, but he has started to garner some hype in fantasy circles after stealing 29 bases in 24 games in the Arizona Fall League. Durbin’s is a speed-and-contact oriented profile, and he’ll fit right in on a Brewers team with several comparable options. He might be redundant on a team with Brice Turang, unless the Brewers are willing to slide the Platinum Glover over to shortstop. If they are, Durbin could have an Opening Day lineup spot on a team that is willing to run a lot, so he could certainly matter in category leagues. Or he could be another part-time player on a roster full of them. He’s a fringe-y enough talent that an everyday role is not guaranteed. —Chris Towers
Garrett Crochet traded to Red Sox
Crochet pitched like an absolute ace in 2024, with a merely decent 3.58 ERA hiding near-best-in-league peripherals. He looked like a legitimate ace, and I don’t have much question about the talent level, assuming he stays healthy. In return, the White Sox score a big prospect haul that includes catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth and pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez. For more on them and Crochet’s transition to the Red Sox, check out my full-length article. –Chris Towers
Jake Burger traded to Rangers
Burger brings plenty of power, but that’s about it. It wasn’t a problem when he played for the White Sox and Marlins, who were desperate to fill out their lineup with anything worthwhile, but the threshold for playing time is much higher with the Rangers. Perhaps he’s insurance for another Josh Jung injury at third base. Perhaps he’s a platoon partner for Nathaniel Lowe at first. Perhaps he’s a part-time DH for those days when Leody Taveras’ bat just isn’t cutting it in center field. More likely, Burger is all of the above, but whether that’ll amount to full-time at-bats is hard to say as of now. So while the lineup and venue improve for Burger, I’m inclined to downgrade him somewhat due to the uncertainty of the role, dropping him behind names like Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan Mountcastle at first base and Nolan Arenado and Josh Jung at third. –Scott White
Andres Gimenez to Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz to Pirates in three-team deal
This one is technically more of a flip since all three of the Pirates’ contributions to the deal (Luis Ortiz, Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy) are going to the Guardians, but since Horwitz didn’t even have time to pack his bags, I’ll call it a three-team deal. The most Fantasy-relevant player on the move is Gimenez. His arrival in Toronto is a little disappointing for Will Wagner, Davis Schneider and Orelvis Martinez, all interesting players who might have pushed Horwitz for playing time but won’t overtake Gimenez. Horwitz himself would seem to be the big winner, presuming the Pirates give him full run at first base (he was stretched at second, and the Pirates have ample alternatives there). The 27-year-old is a bat-control specialist who showed surprising power as a rookie and could approach 20 homers with a .280 or so batting average if given ample runway.
As for Gimenez, his value doesn’t change much. There may be a slight park downgrade, though not enough to change his power output meaningfully. He’s my No. 14 second baseman in 5×5 scoring and No. 15 in points. One sneaky aspect of this deal is that the Guardians seem to think Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 overall pick in this past year’s draft, is close to major league-ready. By flipping Horwitz, they’ve left themselves without an obvious starter at second base, and while it probably won’t be Bazzana to start out, there’s a good chance it will be by season’s end. –Scott White
Nathan Eovaldi signs with Rangers
We already have a pretty good idea how things will play out for Eovaldi in Texas seeing as he spent the past two years there. It was, in fact, the best two-year stretch of his career, which is why he was rewarded with a three-year, $75 million deal. He remains a hard-thrower at age 34, and that ample velocity, while driving his success, can be difficult to sustain over the full major-league calendar, which makes for a bumpy ride at times. So there will be stretches when Eovaldi looks better than his mid-to-high-threes ERA and stretches when he looks worse, but the end result will be respectable ratios with a quality win total because of how deep he works into games when healthy. I rank Eovaldi just inside my top 60 pitchers for 2025. –Scott White
Max Fried signs with Yankees
Having just lost Juan Soto to the crosstown rival Mets, the Yankees pivoted in a big way Tuesday, agreeing to an eight-year, $218 million contract with former Braves ace Max Fried. It’s the largest ever guaranteed contract for a left-handed pitcher, and on the surface anyway, it’s a nice fit. But here’s where I point out that this free agent deal, like every other free agent deal, is pending a physical, and while normally that’s a matter of crossing t’s and dotting i’s, I can’t shake the feeling that there might be a hiccup in Fried’s case. For the complete lowdown, check out my full-length article. –Scott White
Yimi Garcia signs with Blue Jays
This signing matters for Fantasy only because the Blue Jays are lacking a tried-and-true closer after non-tendering Jordan Romano (who has since signed with the Phillies). You may remember Garcia got the first chance to fill-in as closer when Romano was sidelined by injury last season and fared well enough in the role, but then the Blue Jays dealt him to Seattle, where he developed his own elbow troubles. Healthy now, Garcia could claim the closer role from Chad Green, who spent longer in it last season but also had a curiously low strikeout rate, or the Blue Jays could opt to bring in someone more established still. It’s an evolving situation, but if nothing else, we can say Garcia has landed in a spot where he has a chance for saves. –Scott White
Thairo Estrada signs with Rockies
The Rockies had an opening at second base after non-tendering Brendan Rodgers and will fill it with Estrada on a one-year, $3.25 million deal. The modest terms would suggest he’s merely a bridge to prospect Adael Amador eventually claiming the role. Amador was rushed to the majors as a 21-year-old and showed he wasn’t ready, but if he were to make big strides this year, Estrada doesn’t represent much of a roadblock.
The 28-year-old was a useful Fantasy option in 2022 and 2023, contributing a little bit of pop with some speed — a poor man’s Tommy Edman, you might say — but he fell off hard last season while contending with a bum wrist. Coors Field makes for a cushy environment to rebuild his value, and fittingly, he’s hit .348 (32 for 92) with four home runs in 24 career games there. He’ll still likely be drafted outside the top 20 second baseman but has sleeper appeal in Rotisserie league especially. –Scott White
The battle for the ninth inning in Philadelphia feels a bit less wide open after this signing, but Romano is obviously no sure bet coming off a season ruined by elbow injuries. There’s a reason the Blue Jays, who intend to compete in 2025, non-tendered him with club control left. When Romano is right, he’s a fringe-elite closer, with a three-year stretch from 2021 through 2023 where he posted a 2.37 ERA and 30.3% strikeout rate – a stretch that included consecutive 36-save seasons. The big question here is whether Romano can truly be “right” coming off a season where he dealt with elbow pain from Spring Training right up until he had surgery on the elbow in August.
He should open spring as the favorite for saves in Philadelphia, and that can be a very good spot to be in if you are looking to rack up saves. But if Romano isn’t himself, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and possibly Matt Strahm are there to step up as possible alternatives. I think the likeliest outcomes are, either Romano is healthy and is the closer for as long as he is right, or he struggles pretty early and this whole bullpen is the same kind of muddled mess it was for much of last season. That makes Romano a viable option for saves in the middle rounds of drafts, but I’d be wary of investing much more than that into him given how poorly 2024 went for the soon-to-be 32-year-old. –Chris Towers
The comp doesn’t work perfectly. Cobb was never as good as Jack Flaherty at their respective peaks, and he is nearly a decade older than Flaherty was when he signed with the Tigers last offseason. But you can see the appeal for a veteran like Cobb, who is trying to rebuild his value after a mostly lost 2024 season that saw him deal with hip, shoulder, and finger injuries. Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter has received a lot of praise in recent seasons for the work he has done with the likes of Flaherty and, obviously, Tarik Skubal, and they’ll hope to help Cobb find success on a one-year deal.
Now, the thing here is, Cobb has actually been quite good when he’s been able to stay on the mound in recent years, posting a 3.75 ERA over his past four seasons. The Tigers have been very good at coaxing more velocity out of their arms in recent years, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing for Cobb, whose velocity was down a tick when he was able to get on the mound in 2024. It’s also a great ballpark for any pitcher to call home, which should help Cobb continue to limit damage on balls in play. He isn’t a star, or anything, but if the early-season schedule looks favorable, Cobb could be an interesting late-round flier for 2025. –Chris Towers
Treinen had just one save for the Dodgers during the regular season, but he was their most trusted reliever during the postseason, taking on a high-leverage role that netted him three saves. Presumably, they’re bringing him back to fill that role, which would make him the early favorite for saves in Los Angeles. We should know by now, though, that manager Dave Roberts doesn’t adhere to bullpen conventions and will mix in a fair amount of Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips as well, but notably, Treinen has the most closing experience of the three. He had 38 saves to go along with a 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 for the Athletics in 2018, and over his final 30 appearances this past season, he had 1.24 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. I’ll be ranking him just outside of my top 15 relievers for 2025 since there’s some uncertainty surrounding his role, but clearly, he has the upside for more. –Scott White
Juan Soto signs with Mets
The Mets finally landed the big fish they’ve been angling for in free agency, as Juan Soto has agreed to sign a record-breaking contract that will keep him in Queens until 2039. Soto’s deal will pay him $765 million over the next 15 seasons, besting the total value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract from a year ago by $65 million. But does it really matter where Soto is playing when considering his Fantasy value? To find out, check out my full-length article on the signing, which also addresses the impact on the rest of the Mets lineup and the free agent market as a whole. –Chris Towers
Conforto’s 2024 stat line may not look particularly impressive, but it was his best since the 2019-20 stretch that made him one of the most highly regarded outfielders in Fantasy. Even more notable is what happened under the hood. His .479 xSLG was just as good as those peak seasons as his average (90.2 mph) and max (113.6 mph) exit velocities jumped to 68th and 90th percentile, respectively. A quick look at the splits will tell you Oracle Park wasn’t doing him any favors. Away from there, he hit .253 with and .852 OPS and 17 of his 20 home runs overall. The Dodgers certainly took notice, and judging by the data, there’s a chance he goes the Teoscar Hernandez and J.D. Martinez route of blowing away expectations on a one-year deal. The Dodgers’ recent with such signings is all the more incentive for me to mark Conforto as a sleeper, ranking him just outside of my top 50 outfielders. –Scott White
Willy Adames signs with Giants
I had already positioned myself as an Adames skeptic for next year, ranking him 10th at shortstop after he just placed fifth there, and this signing only fortifies my position. Oracle Park isn’t quite the neutralizer it once was, but it still rates as the third-worst home run venue for right-handed hitters over the past three years while American Family Field rates as the sixth-best. On the other hand, Adames has batted .321 (18 for 56) with an .827 OPS in 16 career games in San Francisco, and Statcast estimates that he would have hit 31 home runs playing every game there last year vs. the 32 he actually hit. So maybe it won’t be so bad?
The issue is in using Adames’ 2024 as a basis for comparison when it was almost certainly his best-case outcome. His exit velocities, strikeout rate and batted-ball angles were all in line with career norms, and yet his batting average (.251) was his highest in three years, his home runs (32) were his most ever, and he also stole 21 bases when he had never reached even double digits before. It also probably goes without saying that he won’t have a combined 205 runs and RBI as the most feared hitter in a mediocre Giants lineup. So if this signing makes you skeptical of a repeat performance, that’s probably for the best. You already should have been. –Scott White
Seems like the Orioles are moving in their left field fence just in time. O’Neill just had a resurgent season with the Red Sox in part because he made a concerted effort to pull the ball in the air more — a fine strategy for a right-handed hitter at Fenway Park but one that would have brought such a player to ruin at Camden Yards the past couple years. Fortunately, the reported changes to the left field fence there should make it a more neutral environment for right-handed hitters, and notably, O’Neill’s career season (2021) came in St. Louis, which is also a challenging place for right-handers to hit it out.
Perhaps, then, the more significant variable for O’Neill than venue is his own health. Cutting a muscular figure, the 29-year-old has been particularly susceptible to strains, playing just 65 percent of his team’s games the past four years, and even when healthy, his limited bat control (he struck out a career worst 33.6 percent last year) has made for unpredictable outcomes. He has the upside of top-20 outfielder, but the concerns piled on top of concerns drop him to 36th in my outfield rankings. –Scott White
After three years as the Yankees on-again, off-again closer, Holmes is switching not just leagues but also roles, getting a shot as a starter on a three-year, $38 million deal. The role isn’t totally foreign to him, seeing as he spent much of his minor-league career as a starter, and in the years since, he’s developed a more trustworthy arsenal and stable enough command to attempt this move back. While his sinkerball approach may have been ill-suited for closing, leaving him too vulnerable to hits in high-leverage moments, it’s likely to minimize damage over extended stretches. For all the tense moments as a closer, the ERA was always good, after all. This signing raises Holmes’ Fantasy appeal in the hopes he can follow in the footsteps of successful relievers-turned-starters like Michael King, Reynaldo Lopez and Bowden Francis, and interest should be especially high in Head-to-Head points leagues, where he figures to be one of the top 15 relievers drafted. –Scott White
It’s a one-year pact with a player option for a second just in base Bieber’s recovery from Tommy John surgery goes poorly. His entire future in Fantasy of course hinges on that recovery. You’ll remember the former Cy Young winner seemed to be on the verge of regaining ace standing after an offseason spent working with Driveline Baseball, regaining the bite on his slider and dominating through two starts. But then his elbow began barking, and well, you know the rest. The earliest we can hope to see Bieber is June 2025, which means he’ll only be worth stashing in leagues with ample IL stash. Which version of Bieber shows up then is anybody’s guess, but it’s encouraging that the organization that knows him best opted to re-up with him. –Scott White
After playing with two AL East teams in the same game last season, Jansen continues his tour around the division by joining the Rays, where he will likely be the starting catcher. That didn’t go quite so well for either Toronto or Boston in 2024, as Jansen struggled through one of his worst seasons ever, hitting just .205/.309/.349, so the Rays are surely hoping for a bounce-back on this one-year deal. Jansen makes a lot of contact and has a decent eye at the plate, but his quality of contact has been in a freefall in his late 20s, with his expected wOBA on contact dropping from .408 in 2022 to .291 last season. If he can rediscover some of the pop he has last in recent years, he could be a decent No. 2 catcher, especially with the Rays making a move to what we think will be a hitter-friendly home at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this season. Jansen is a viable, low-end No. 2 catcher for deeper formats, but shouldn’t be viewed as a priority, even in 15-team leagues. –Chris Towers
Luis Severino signs with the Athletics
The A’s made a surprising splash in free agency with their three-year contract with Severino for $67 million, the largest guaranteed contract in franchise history. It’s a less-than-ideal landing spot for Severino’s Fantasy value in 2025, unfortunately, as the A’s still figure to be a pretty middling team (at best) in 2025 and are moving from a pitcher friendly park to one that may play at least a bit closer to average. That would be a downgrade for Severino, after he spent a year rebuilding his value in a very pitcher-friendly park with the Mets.
To his credit, Severino did a great job rebuilding that value with the Mets, and he did so by showing a lot more flexibility as a pitcher than ever before. At his best, Severino didn’t really need much of a gameplan, as he just pumped four-seamers and sliders past hitters, throwing those two pitches 85-90% of the time. In 2024, he introduced a sweeper and greatly increased his sinker usage, giving him six pitches he threw at least 7% of the time. The Mets have become a very good pitching development organization, and Severino benefited from his time with them. The likeliest outcome here is that Severino isn’t much more than a rotation filler for Fantasy, but if he can stay healthy, he’ll have moments of usefulness. And, if the strikeout rate jump he tapped into in the second half of the season (26.2%) sticks, maybe he can even be a bit more than that. But he probably doesn’t need to be much more than a late-rounder in drafts, and even that might be overstating it if he has a poor early schedule. –Chris Towers
About four months away from the start of the season, it’s nearly impossible to say what the Red Sox plans for the back end of the bullpen are, but Chapman surely figures to be part of them now. Their returning saves leader is a tie between Justin Slaten and Josh Winckowski, who all had two each last season, while their most experienced in-house closer option is Liam Hendriks, who has pitched just five innings since 2022 after recovering from leukemia and then Tommy John surgery. Chapman is no longer the lights-out closer he was at his best, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old still strikes out nearly 40% of opposing batters (despite losing a tick or two off fastball last season) and can get the job done on a one-year deal. At this point, it makes sense to treat him like the favorite for the ninth inning in Boston in 2025, at least until we see what Hendriks looks like in the spring – for what it’s worth, Hendricks’ fastball velocity was down 2-3 mph in his brief minor-league rehab assignment toward the end of last season, which doesn’t bode well. –Chris Towers
Another retread-gone-right, Boyd is earned a two-year deal with the Cubs after a successful eight-start run with the Guardians in 2024. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, with underlying peripherals that mostly backed it up – thanks, in large part, to a strong 27.7% strikeout rate. Boyd’s velocity was mostly back up to pre-injury levels, though that still makes him a soft-tosser at this point, so his success will be based on his effective his slider/changeup combo can be. Both pitches were excellent in 2024, but the underlying pitch characteristics don’t necessarily back up what he accomplished, with most pitch modeling metrics suggesting Boyd was a below-average pitcher in 2024. A year further removed from surgery, maybe Boyd can take another step forward and find success with a pretty clear path to a rotation spot for the Cubs, but he doesn’t have to be much more than a late-round, bench-spot flier even in deeper leagues. –Chris Towers
The Mets have a rotation to rebuild, and the first step was adding a pitcher coming off a down year split between the Reds and Brewers. Or maybe calling it a “down year” is soft-pedaling given that it was Montas’ first back from surgery to the labrum in his right shoulder. His velocity was basically up to snuff, though, and he did see his K/9 rate jump from 7.5 in his 19 starts with the Reds to 11.0 in his 11 starts with the Brewers. Even prior to the 2023 shoulder surgery, his career was defined by inconsistency due to the on-again, off-again nature of his splitter. The Mets fared well with reclamation projects like Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last season and have agreed to pay Montas $34 million over the next two, so they clearly see something they like. We shouldn’t rule out a bounce-back season, particularly since the cost in Fantasy will be so low. –Scott White
To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers have landed the first marquee free agent of the offseason, agreeing to a five-year $182 million deal with Blake Snell Tuesday. It’s a big commitment for what’s been the model organization the past few years and may go a long way toward allaying fears about Snell’s irregularities. While he’s put together a 2.82 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over the past three seasons, much has been made about the way he came about those numbers. For more, check out my full-length article breaking down the signing. –Scott White
The three-year, $63 million deal is a modest one for a pitcher who seemed to have real momentum heading into the offseason, having just put together a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 in his 10 starts for the Astros. The improved performance coincided with Kikuchi roughly doubling his slider usage, and his 2025 destination matters less for his Fantasy value than whether or not he sticks to that approach.
He has always missed bats at a good rate but has gotten inconsistent results due to questionable pitch selection and a penchant for hard contact. Going to the Angels gives him a lower margin for error than if he had gone to a true contender and also does nothing to soften his vulnerability to the long ball, but again, his success is tied more to continuing his slider-heavy approach. And for that, we’ll just have to wait and see. I cautiously rank him just inside my top 50 starting pitchers for 2025, but he has the upside for more. –Scott White
Unfortunately, this trade is close to a worse-case scenario for the two major players involved. India goes from the most favorable park for home runs — i.e., one of the few where his fringy power plays — to one of the least favorable. According to Statcast, his 63 career home runs would be 42 if he played every game at Kauffman Stadium. Obviously, the reverse move is bad for Singer, a pitcher who’s on the more pitch-to-contact side of the ledger, but since he generally puts the ball on the ground, maybe it’s not as bad. Then again, he has a career 3.92 ERA at home in Kauffman Stadium compared to a 4.74 ERA everywhere else.
Neither India nor Singer figured to be a hot commodity prior to this trade, and both might go undrafted now in shallower leagues. India is a little more useful in points leagues because of his on-base skills, and both he and Singer at least stand to be high-volume plays. India’s removal does free up some of the Reds’ infield logjam with Matt McLain expected back, penciling in Noelvi Marte at third base again. –Scott White
Rather than test the free agent market, Martinez accepted the Reds’ qualifying offer of $21.05 million, which isn’t altogether surprising given that it now represents roughly 40 percent of his career MLB earnings. That the Reds extended the offer is telling. They had a front-row seat to the 34-year-old’s career season and bought in hard at an amount that virtually guarantees he’ll be a full-time starter rather than reverting to a swingman role.
Perhaps, then, we should take Martinez just as seriously. He’s always had a killer changeup, and he became a strike-thrower of the highest order in 2024, boasting the third-best walk rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. His home run prevention was probably too good to be true, particularly for pitching half his games in Cincinnati, but he won’t be priced for another 3.10 ERA. More likely, he’ll be sort of a poor man’s Jose Berrios or Zach Eflin, good for piling up innings with a low WHIP, and he takes on added value in Head-to-Head points leagues due to his relief pitcher eligibility. –Scott White
Finally freed of his catching tandem with Sean Murphy, d’Arnaud was quick to put himself in another one, this time with up-and-comer Logan O’Hoppe. It’s frustrating for a couple reasons, one being that O’Hoppe loses some of the volume that made him so attractive for Fantasy, likely going from a 75 percent workload share to 60 percent or less, and the other being that d’Arnaud himself could have pursued a full-time role. Instead, d’Arnaud figures to remain a fringe second catcher for two-catcher leagues, and while O’Hoppe doesn’t necessarily slide down the rankings — he was already regarded as a low-end No. 1 — his upside takes a hit. Maybe his .196 batting average in the second half is evidence he was overworked, but even if it improves, his counting stats will be capped.
Meanwhile, Murphy has a golden opportunity to reestablish himself in Atlanta after bombing for the past season-and-a-half there. Injuries have likely contributed to his struggles, as has irregular playing time due to the presence of d’Arnaud, but he’ll need to prove himself quickly to hold off prospect Drake Baldwin. –Scott White
Only three months after acquiring him from the Giants, the Braves flipped Soler to the Angels in what was essentially a salary dump. They ended up non-tendering the player they got back in the deal, Griffin Canning. You might think Soler’s departure reflects well on Ronald Acuna’s recovery from a torn ACL, but GM Alex Anthopoulos later confessed that the star outfielder likely won’t be ready for the start of 2025. As for Soler, he has an easy claim to the Angels’ DH spot and will play in a pretty nice venue, particularly for home runs, but his success has never depended on such factors. He’s a mercurial performer coming off a down season but still has the 35-homer upside to pay off handsomely as a fourth or fifth outfielder. –Scott White
