As we look at the fourth week of CBS Sports Average Draft Position data for PPR, we’re starting to see a lot of player movement reflecting actual things happening in the NFL. For example, CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase are sliding due to contract issues, and Justin Jefferson is falling with the injury to J.J. McCarthy (knee). And that’s just the first round.
For context, the ADP for this story is August 20, and we’ll be doing this every week leading up to Week 1. I love checking the ADP daily to see the player movement because a lot of Fantasy drafts are happening now. And more will continue every day until the season starts Sept. 5.
As a reminder, using ADP is just a guide. You never want to follow ADP directly for your drafts. The idea is to see where you can find potential value picks — and players going too soon that you might want to avoid.
Round 1 ADP
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Breece Hall
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Bijan Robinson
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown
8. Ja’Marr Chase
9. Jonathan Taylor
10. Justin Jefferson
11. A.J. Brown
12. Jahmyr Gibbs
McCaffrey remains the No. 1 overall pick despite his calf injury, which makes sense since he’ll be ready for Week 1. But Lamb has dropped from No. 2 last week to No. 4 due to his contract situation, with Hill and Hall moving up.
I have Hill as the No. 2 overall pick in PPR, so I’m fine with this change in ADP. But I would still draft Lamb at No. 3 overall, followed by Hall and Robinson. We just hope Lamb gets a new deal soon, otherwise he could drop even more.
Chase has also dropped from No. 6 overall last week to No. 8 now. Barkley and St. Brown have moved ahead of Chase, but I would rather have him than Barkley for sure and even St. Brown. However, like Lamb, if Chase doesn’t get his contract situation settled soon then he’ll continue to slide.
Jefferson was No. 7 overall last week, but he has fallen three spots over concern with Sam Darnold being the Vikings starter with McCarthy (knee) out. I still like Jefferson as the No. 3 receiver, and I would draft him at No. 6 overall.
Brown and Gibbs swapped spots this week compared to last week, and Gibbs got good news Tuesday with his hamstring injury. He’s expected to return to practice this week, and hopefully, he’ll have no lingering issues during the season. I wouldn’t draft Gibbs in Round 1, but he’s still a top-20 player this year.
Quarterbacks
The top three quarterbacks consist of Josh Allen (No. 18 overall), Jalen Hurts (No. 22), and Patrick Mahomes (No. 24), and they’re starting to rise. This is the highest any quarterback has gone so far in our ADP review. While those three are elite, I would rather wait for other quarterbacks later in the draft, and I’m not drafting any of them in Round 2.
My favorite values at quarterback continue to be Kyler Murray (ADP of 79.9), Jayden Daniels (109.7) and Caleb Williams (109.8). Murray is my No. 6 quarterback behind Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Anthony Richardson, and Daniels (No. 9) and Williams (No. 12) are No. 1 Fantasy quarterbacks. Based on ADP, Murray is QB10, Daniels is QB14 and Williams is QB15, so you can see why I like their values.
I don’t love the value for Jordan Love (60.0), who is being drafted as QB7. I would rather have Richardson (62.5), Murray, and Daniels, who are all going after Love. I would also rather have Daniels and Williams ahead of Brock Purdy (86.7), Jared Goff (99.9) and Tua Tagovailoa (105.1). While I like all those quarterbacks, they shouldn’t be drafted ahead of the rookies, who have more upside.
Running backs
The top 17 running backs in our consensus rankings are the same as the top 17 running backs in ADP. In ADP order, they are McCaffrey, Hall, Robinson, Barkley, Taylor, Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook, De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, and Kenneth Walker III. All of these guys are going in the first 40 overall picks, which is fine.
It’s the next group of running backs who will likely define a lot of drafts, and hopefully, we have more league winners than league losers. The next 10 running backs off the board are James Conner (ADP of 50.4), Zamir White (52.8), Aaron Jones (57.7), D’Andre Swift (58.1), David Montgomery (60.2), Raheem Mostert (62.1), Najee Harris (64.9), Rhamondre Stevenson (68.2), Tony Pollard (76.8) and Nick Chubb (79.4).
Of that group, my favorite values are Harris, Stevenson, and Pollard, and I would likely avoid Conner, Jones, Mostert, and Chubb at that cost. Harris got a boost in value this week with Jaylen Warren (hamstring) getting hurt in Pittsburgh’s second preseason game. Warren’s ADP is on the decline at 87.7, but he should become a solid value pick as long as he’s not going to miss several weeks during the year.
I also like the value for Brian Robinson Jr. (83.9) and Javonte Williams (88.1), and I’ve come around on Williams after a strong training camp and preseason. I would now draft him in the Round 6 range as a low-end No. 2 running back.
Some other great values at running back include Jerome Ford (102.8), Tyjae Spears (102.9), Chase Brown (103.1), and Rico Dowdle (117.2), who has now moved ahead of Ezekiel Elliott (117.9). I like Dowdle better than Elliott, and I love drafting all of the running backs in this group based on their ADP.
Finally, a few of my favorite sleepers based on ADP include Chuba Hubbard (137.2), Ty Chandler (141.0), Jaleel McLaughlin (147.4) and Bucky Irving (164.1). I expect all of these running backs to be difference-makers during the season, especially Hubbard while Jonathon Brooks (knee) is on the mend.
Wide receivers
I’m not sure why Fantasy managers don’t value Garrett Wilson (ADP of 16.9) as a first-round pick, but I would draft him at No. 10 overall. I also don’t understand Drake London (34.2) falling into Round 3, and I would draft him as early as No. 16 overall.
Cooper Kupp (33.2) continues to see his value rise, while Puka Nacua (18.7) is holding steady as a Round 2 selection. I like Nacua at No. 13 overall, and hopefully, his knee will be fine prior to Week 1.
Some of my favorite value picks here are Jaylen Waddle (46.8), Malik Nabers (63.1), Tee Higgins (64.8), Rashee Rice (78.0) and Chris Godwin (84.8). I would draft Waddle toward the end of Round 2, Nabers as early as Round 3, Higgins and Rice in Round 4, and Godwin in Round 6.
By comparison, I don’t love the value for D.J. Moore (48.1), Michael Pittman Jr. (50.4), and Stefon Diggs (51.8). Their overall ADP isn’t the issue, but I’d rather have Nabers, Higgins, and Rice over that trio. And Tank Dell (65.5) is my second favorite Texans receiver behind Collins, and you can draft Dell more than a round later than Diggs based on the ADP.
Three of my favorite rookie receivers are being drafted after pick No. 110 overall, including Keon Coleman (110.5), Rome Odunze (120.7), and Brian Thomas Jr. (127.6). All three of these guys could be difference-makers this season, and I have Thomas ranked the highest of this bunch.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce (ADP of 24.9) continues to remain 10 picks ahead of Sam LaPorta (34.4), and I’m loving the discount you can get on LaPorta if he stays in this range. LaPorta is my No. 1 tight end this year.
My favorite group to monitor is Dalton Kincaid (58.5), George Kittle (61.6), Kyle Pitts (74.3) and Evan Engram (75.4). I’m interested in drafting all four of these guys, although the price tag for Kittle is a little steep. Now, if Brandon Aiyuk gets traded then I’ll gladly draft Kittle in the first five rounds.
David Njoku (88.2) is the No. 9 tight end, and I would pass on him there for Jake Ferguson (89.2) and Dallas Goedert (107.9). Despite the way Njoku played last year — he was better with Joe Flacco compared to Deshaun Watson — I like the upside for Ferguson and Goedert more.
Some late-round tight ends to target are Pat Freiermuth (133.4), Tyler Conklin (163.5), Hunter Henry (167.0), and Greg Dulcich, who does not currently have an ADP on CBS. Freiermuth is easily my favorite option as long as Aiyuk isn’t traded to the Steelers.
