Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 12 content:
In his three starts, Jameis Winston has averaged 2.63 seconds to throw and an average depth of throw of 9.6 yards (which is fourth-highest among qualifying quarterbacks since Week 8). The dude has always loved to chuck the rock downfield, but the Steelers have improved how they’ve defended passes of 15-plus Air Yards. In their first five games, they allowed a 52% completion rate and two touchdowns. In their past five, against the Raiders, Jets, Giants (who tried 13 deep throws), Commanders, and Ravens (12 deep throws), only 34.1% have been completed, with only one going for a touchdown. And for the whole season, just five deep-throw catches have been good for at least 35 yards and none for more than 49. Fresh off of suffocating Lamar Jackson’s deep pass attempts with a lofty 45.7% blitz rate last week, bank on the Steelers deploying extra defenders to rattle Winston and force him to get the ball out faster in an attempt to create takeaways. To be fair, it’s what they do to every QB, and their 2.5-second average of snap to pressure suggests Winston, behind a disappointing O-line with questions at left tackle, will have to get the ball out fast or else deal with the consequences like other QBs have this year.
OBVIOUS STARTS: George Pickens
STARTS: Najee Harris (No. 2 RB), David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy (low-end No. 2 WR), Steelers DST
FLEX: Cedric Tillman (PPR), Elijah Moore (PPR), Jaylen Warren (PPR)
SITS: Jameis Winston (bye-week QB), Russell Wilson, Nick Chubb (bye-week RB), Jerome Ford, Pat Freiermuth (desperation TE), Mike Williams, Browns DST (low-end option)
Not that the Chiefs are going to take the 3-7 Panthers lightly, but this figures to be a good opportunity for Patrick Mahomes to build some confidence with his receivers. Carolina has reliably played zone coverage all season (seventh-highest rate) with a lot of Cover-3 as their primary shell. They also have the lowest pass-rush pressure rate (24.3%) and the second-fewest sacks (12) and sack rate (3.8%) on the season. Mahomes should walk into the matchup knowing he’ll have time to wait for his receivers to get open and then hit them for gains. Xavier Worthy has the highest route rate among all Chiefs’ receivers since Week 8 and is clearly the fastest. Andy Reid lamented this week that had Mahomes seen Worthy earlier on their deep target against the Bills that, he would have scored, then added, “We’ve got to make sure (that) we take care of business on both ends there.” Worthy might be a better-than-normal flex play since he’s their fastest receiver who needs experience and has a terrific matchup.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard (borderline No. 2 RB), Chiefs DST
FLEX: Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Legette
SITS: Bryce Young, Jonathon Brooks (stash), Samaje Perine, Adam Thielen, Ja’Tavion Sanders, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jalen Coker, Noah Gray, Panthers DST
Last week, Sam Darnold walked into a road matchup against a defense that had allowed just two quarterbacks to get more than 22 Fantasy points against them, and he smashed the Titans for 27.6 points, more than any other passer against Tennessee. Hitting the road for a second-straight week against a division rival won’t be easy, particularly one that’s allowed just ONE game of more than 22 Fantasy points to a quarterback this season. The Bears have tinkered with man-to-man coverage in their past two games but didn’t win either one and surrendered eight pass plays of 15-plus yards (including two of 48-plus yards) over 17 pass attempts to Jordan Love last week. So unless the Bears have a death wish, they’ll probably tilt back toward zone coverage, which Darnold is proficient against, but it might mean more dinking and dunking and less chance at hitting huge upside. He remains a top-12 Fantasy passer but not a top-five. It should also mean more targets for T.J. Hockenson and fewer for Jordan Addison since the windows for Darnold to throw into will be wider in short range.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones (No. 2 RB), D’Andre Swift (No. 2 RB), T.J. Hockenson (low-end starting TE), Vikings DST
FLEX: D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison
SITS: Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen (bye-week PPR WR), Cam Akers (bye-week RB), Roschon Johnson (bye-week RB), Cole Kmet, Bears DST
Joe Mixon has at least 20 carries in five straight games. While the Texans may need to eventually think about lightening Joe Mixon’s workload, the Titans pass rush has started to show signs of life over its past four games (10 sacks) and could cause issues for C.J. Stroud. Naturally, Stroud’s numbers will continue to improve as Nico Collins gets back into the groove of the game, but Houston’s offensive line also has to keep improving as they did last week against Dallas (31.6% pressure rate allowed was their best in five games). Four of the past five quarterbacks to take on Tennessee have posted at least 21 Fantasy points, all with top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed out of action. If Stroud had been playing better lately, then he’d be an easy start, but as things stand, he’s probably best as a bye-week replacement. Furthermore, what’s left of the Titans defense in its past four games has allowed just two wide receivers — Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison — to get 14-plus PPR points. Running backs have been crushing the Titans, which is why Mixon will probably maintain his normal workload.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
STARTS: Calvin Ridley, Texans DST (multi-week option)
FLEX: Tank Dell, Tony Pollard
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (bye-week WR), John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, Dameon Pierce, Julius Chestnut, Titans DST
Last week felt like Anthony Richardson’s best pro game as a passer. He still had some misfires, but he was much calmer in the pocket and had decent footwork, both of which led to better accuracy. And he also made plays when the Jets pass rush got near him, including a play when he carried a Jets defensive back on him while he chucked a ball out of bounds. That’s great, but the better development for Fantasy managers was the 10 designed run plays called for him and the 32 yards and two rushing touchdowns that came along with it. The hope is that those run plays keep coming, and his passing doesn’t regress. Detroit has allowed 6.45 yards per rush to quarterbacks on the year, third-most in the league, and two of the three quarterbacks to notch at least 20 Fantasy points against the Lions this season had a rushing touchdown. The Lions figure to stay aggressive on defense and blitz Richardson a lot with man-to-man coverage behind. That ups the difficulty for Richardson as a thrower, but Detroit’s pass rush hasn’t been the same without Aidan Hutchinson (10 sacks in five games), even though the team has blitzed more than anybody in their past five. It might mean Richardson will scramble more, fortifying his upside as a rusher. It’s best to view him as a high-end No. 2 QB, perfect for filling the bye week and spot starting over quarterbacks who don’t have high upside.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor (No. 2 RB), Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Josh Downs (No. 2 WR in PPR), Lions DST (low-end starter)
FLEX: Jameson Williams, Michael Pittman (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: Anthony Richardson (high-end No. 2 QB), Alec Pierce (bye-week WR), Brock Wright, Colts DST
The Patriots followed up a blitz-heavy effort at Chicago with an even higher blitz rate last week versus the Rams … and sacked Matthew Stafford exactly zero times, and allowed 295 passing yards and four touchdowns. No starting quarterback gets the ball out of his hands faster than Tua Tagovailoa (2.39 seconds on average), and no team uses quick passes more than the Dolphins, so it would be shocking if the Patriots kept up the blitzing. New England has played the second-most man-to-man coverage of any team this season with an emphasis on third downs, but against the Dolphins without Tagovailoa in Week 5, they played 67.6% zone, their highest mark on the year. I would guess they’ll do something similar here — more zone coverage than normal without much blitzing in an effort to not allow much yardage after the catch. That could cap the upside of all Dolphins non-running backs.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
STARTS: Tua Tagovailoa (low-end No. 1 QB), Rhamondre Stevenson (No. 2 RB), Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry
SITS: Drake Maye (bye-week QB), Jaylen Waddle (borderline low-end PPR flex), Demario Douglas (bye-week PPR WR), Kendrick Bourne, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright, Antonio Gibson, Dolphins DST, Patriots DST
In Tommy DeVito’s six games with at least 20 pass attempts last year, he averaged a 66% completion rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a low 7.8% off-target rate. In 10 games this season, Daniel Jones completed 63.3% of his passes, averaged 6.1 yards per attempt, had eight passing touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 9.4% off-target rate. Maybe the Giants offense isn’t giving up too much here, though it can be said DeVito will probably not take many chances downfield and has been prone to holding the ball too long. The Giants’ offensive line has started to fare better without left tackle Andrew Thomas, allowing just four sacks in its past two games against the Commanders and Panthers. Tampa Bay is known to fiercely blitz and will almost certainly do so here to disrupt DeVito’s passing. Any expectation of a huge game from Malik Nabers should be tempered.
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Tyrone Tracy, Mike Evans, Malik Nabers (No. 2 WR), Cade Otton, Buccaneers DST
FLEX: Rachaad White (borderline No. 2 RB), Bucky Irving (borderline No. 2 RB)
SITS: Tommy DeVito, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson (bye-week TE), Giants DST
There is no doubt that Commanders coach Dan Quinn will bring out some of his best calls for this matchup against the offense he used to practice against daily, especially with a backup quarterback. What makes the matchup even harder for Dallas is that Washington has varied their coverage and pass-rush approaches, making them less predictable from week to week. But they’ll learn soon enough that Cooper Rush has been dramatically worse throwing the ball when pressured (42.9% completion rate, 21.4% off-target rate) as well as when he encounters man-to-man coverage (41.2% completion rate, 23.5% off-target rate). It wouldn’t be a surprise whatsoever if the Commanders leaned on the blitz to try and collect some turnovers. You should also know that CeeDee Lamb has averaged a wild 21.4 yards per catch against man coverage this year, but it’s come with a 50% catch rate on his targets … and those numbers have slid to 18.5 yards per catch and a 40% catch rate when they’ve been passes from Cooper Rush.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb (No. 2 WR)
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Zach Ertz (low-end starting TE), Commanders DST
FLEX: Austin Ekeler (PPR flex), Rico Dowdle (low-end flex)
SITS: Cooper Rush, Noah Brown, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Luke Schoonmaker (bye-week TE), Cowboys DST
As if Bo Nix hasn’t already been living a charmed life under the tutelage of Broncos coach Sean Payton, he’ll potentially take on the Raiders without their top three cornerbacks. Slot cornerback Nate Hobbs didn’t play. Top outside corner Jakorian Bennett got hurt early last week at Miami, opening the door for Tyreek Hill to have some success without the Raiders’ speedster on defense. Then Jack Jones, their other starting outside cornerback, was hurt in the fourth quarter. None practiced on Wednesday, and if they’re all out come Sunday, then the Broncos figure to have their way both through the air and on the ground. It should especially make Nix not only a safe start but a good one for Fantasy. And as for Javonte Williams, the hope is he gets to build on his good game last week, but the reality is that he hasn’t gotten even 11 PPR points in consecutive games this year and has had consecutive games with 13-plus PPR points just once since his rookie year. That and losing out on some work to Audric Estime are the only possible reasons to sit him — not exactly the best reasons, so start him.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Brock Bowers
STARTS: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams (No. 2 RB), Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR), Broncos DST
FLEX: Ameer Abdullah (PPR, only if Alexander Mattison is out)
SITS: Gardner Minshew, DeVaughn Vele (desperation WR), Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, Tre Tucker, Audric Estime (bye-week RB), Jaleel McLaughlin, Sincere McCormick, Dylan Laube, Raiders DST
The 49ers figure to have a major issue playing this one without pass-rusher extraordinaire Nick Bosa. They’re not known as a blitz-heavy defense to begin with, so suggesting they’ll just blitz more to generate added pressure isn’t guaranteed. If they do it, or if they get pressure without Bosa, Jordan Love overcame a 50% pass rush pressure rate last week to hit Jayden Reed for an early touchdown, then connected with Christian Watson for gains of 17, 25, 48, and 60 yards when the Bears got close to him. Perhaps the biggest change for Love this week is where he goes with the ball — the 49ers allow a fourth-highest 87.7% catch rate to running backs, and they’re among the best in the league on defending deep throws. It could mean a measured, short-range passing game for Love.
Then again, he might not have to throw a ton. The 49ers offense is expected to be much less efficient with backup Brandon Allen replacing Brock Purdy. Allen hasn’t played meaningful regular-season reps since 2021. There were six games he threw at least 19 passes in between 2020 and ’21, averaging a 61% completion rate, an ADOT of 6.4 yards, a deep pass attempt rate of 11%, and an off-target rate of 14.5%. If you compared those numbers to 2024 quarterbacks across the league, Allen would compare to someone in-between 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers and Aidan O’Connell. I would expect the Niners passing game to keep things short, which would benefit the volume for both Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings as well as George Kittle, but I wouldn’t expect many deep throws, which hurts Samuel since he’s had the best numbers of the three on throws of 16-plus Air Yards. It also doesn’t help Samuel that he looked heavy-footed last week as he works his way back from a reported bout of pneumonia and an oblique/rib injury.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, George Kittle
STARTS: Jauan Jennings (low-end No. 2 WR)
FLEX: Jayden Reed (borderline No. 2 PPR WR), Deebo Samuel, Romeo Doubs
SITS: Jordan Love (borderline starter), Christian Watson (bye-week WR), Ricky Pearsall, Tucker Kraft, 49ers DST, Packers DST
On one hand, the Cardinals are definitely one of the league’s worst when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback, thanks to a 29.4% pass-rush pressure rate. Even the additions of rookie Darius Robinson and veteran Baron Browning don’t figure to help too much. On the other hand, Arizona has made magic with its pass defense, limiting offenses who throw deep and beginning to have its defense against slot receivers match what it’s done against outside receivers. But without that pass rush, this is going to be a big-time test against a Seahawks offense that always operates better when Geno Smith isn’t pressured. Smith had one decent game (21.06 Fantasy points) and one sorta dud (17.76) against Arizona last year, and they’re playing better this year, so it’s hard to buy into Smith. But it’s much easier to buy into his receivers, especially when Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 11-plus targets in two straight games and six-plus catches in three straight. DK Metcalf has at least seven targets in all but two games this year.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf,
STARTS: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey McBride, Cardinals DST (one-week option)
SITS: Geno Smith (bye-week QB), Trey Benson, Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Lockett, Michael Wilson, Noah Fant, Seahawks DST
While it’s great that the Rams solved their O-line issues and beat up the Patriots’ man-to-man coverage last week, they’re facing a massive step-up in competition this week in the Eagles. Only one quarterback has done well in Fantasy against Philly, and since their Week 5 bye, they’ve slammed everyone they’ve faced with an improved pass rush and really good coverage in the secondary. The Eagles have also been outstanding against the run since their bye, holding backs to 3.7 yards per carry, a 7.9% 10-plus-yard rush rate, and just two rushing touchdowns in six games. They did let up some numbers through the air to Austin Ekeler last week, and that could be how Sean McVay opts to deploy Kyren Williams this week (he has four games with four-plus receptions this season, not that he’s done a ton with them). I suspect we’ll see a lot of short throws from Matthew Stafford — and not a ton of touchdowns.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua
STARTS: Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
SITS: Matthew Stafford (bye-week QB; he’ll be great next week), Rams DST
Specifically, it should be pass-rush pressure that factors the most in this matchup. The Steelers used pressure and really tight pass coverage against the Ravens last week with mixed results — Baltimore was able to drive on them but missed two field goals and didn’t get into the end zone until the late fourth quarter. Without Khalil Mack for pretty much the past two games, the Chargers have somehow drummed up a consistent 44.3% pass rush pressure rate, even though they didn’t blitz much. That created 10 sacks in those games. The Bolts’ secondary has played tough for much of the year, but they run more zone coverage than man-to-man, and it cost them on a bunch of big plays last week. Lamar Jackson definitely has a chance to bounce back. The Ravens pass rush is a definite step up in class for Justin Herbert to deal with; it was their unit that frazzled Russell Wilson into a bunch of throwaways and mistakes last week. When pressured this year, Herbert has completed just 48.6% of his throws for six yards per attempt, a big change from when he’s not pressured. L.A. can counter that by having Herbert get the ball out quickly and get him moving away from the Ravens rushers. You’ll start both of these guys, but Jackson’s the one with much higher upside.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Justin Herbert, JK Dobbins (No. 2 RB), Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Will Dissly, Mark Andrews
FLEX: Quentin Johnston
SITS: Gus Edwards (desperation non-PPR RB), Justice Hill (desperation PPR RB), Rashod Bateman (bye-week WR), Diontae Johnson, Isaiah Likely, Ravens DST, Chargers DST
