Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 16 content:
Bo Nix would have scored 25.5 Fantasy points (if not more) had he not thrown three interceptions in Week 15. But he did throw three, two of which were ugly, and it’s alarming that Nix has thrown five interceptions in his past two games. What made it especially surprising was that they came against a Colts defense that’s pretty predictable in how they play against the pass. The Chargers are the same — a lot of zone coverage, albeit with more two-high safety looks than Indy. And, like the Colts, the Chargers don’t blitz a ton. The matchup is such that Nix should be able to operate his quick-game passing without much issue from the Bolts, a likely scenario since the Broncos can’t run the ball worth a darn. I think Nix is the same safe Fantasy QB he’s been all year with modest upside; he’s delivered at least 19.5 Fantasy points in four of his past five games, including last week. The Chargers have let up at least 23 Fantasy points to four of the past six starting QBs they’ve faced.
STARTS: Courtland Sutton (No. 1 WR), Ladd McConkey (No. 2 WR), Broncos DST
SITS: Bo Nix (borderline starter), Justin Herbert, Javonte Williams, Quentin Johnston (desperation starter), Josh Palmer, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Audric Estime, Stone Smartt, Devaughn Vele, Chargers DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Nico Collins, Joe Mixon (No. 2 RB)
STARTS: Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST, Texans DST
FLEX: Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco (non-PPR), DeAndre Hopkins (PPR),
SITS: Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt, Dare Ogunbowale
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry,
STARTS: Mark Andrews, Ravens DST
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Najee Harris, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill (PPR)
SITS: Russell Wilson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren (desperation PPR RB), Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, Steelers DST
It’s a gutsy call by Raheem Morris to bench Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr., but it’s the kind of switch that could turn the Falcons into legit contenders. They’ve got the run game, they’ve got a capable offensive line, and their defense has finally flicked the switch (13 sacks in three games since the bye are tied for second-most in that span). With Penix, the Falcons will develop confidence in unlocking the pass game to all three levels, something they’ve lost with a 48% pass play-call rate and a 7.4-yard average depth of throw with Cousins in their past three … not to mention one passing score and seven interceptions in those three. Penix was a certified gunslinger at Washington for two seasons, lighting up defenses thanks to his fearless, aggressive nature. There will be misfires and growing pains, but at least Penix gives the Falcons’ receivers a chance to revive their numbers.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Malik Nabers
STARTS: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Drake London, Darnell Mooney (borderline No. 2/No. 3 WR), Falcons DST (top-10 DST)
SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Tim Boyle, Kyle Pitts, Ray Ray McCloud, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary, Tyler Allgeier, Dan Bellinger, Giants DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen
STARTS: James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Hunter Henry (low-end TE), Bills DST
FLEX: Khalil Shakir, Rhamondre Stevenson (non-PPR)
SITS: Drake Maye, Ty Johnson (desperation PPR RB), Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Austin Hooper, Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Antonio Gibson, Patriots DST
Carolina’s pass rush has actually come alive over its past four games, unleashing a 37.1% blitz rate with a 10.4% sack rate. Beating this blitz shouldn’t be that big of an issue, but you should know Murray’s completion rate and yards per attempt average drop when he’s pressured while his off-target rate rises. That’s a concern, as is James Conner’s possible domination — the Panthers have given up five yards per carry this season, tied for the most in football with the Commanders and Saints. And they’re dead-last in defensive rushing EPA, defensive rush success rate, rushing touchdowns allowed, rate of zero/negative rush yards allowed, and second-worst in 5-yard rush rate allowed. No surprise offenses average a league-most 27.8 RB rushes per game against them. However, all of Murray’s best games this year have come with Conner getting at least 15 touches and at least 14 PPR points, so it’s very possible the two can each put up good stats, and Carolina does give up 4.7 yards per rush to quarterbacks on the year. Murray’s worth taking the chance on, even if it means low passing volume.
OBVIOUS STARTS: James Conner, Trey McBride
STARTS: Kyler Murray (low-end starter), Chuba Hubbard, Cardinals DST
FLEX: Adam Thielen (PPR), Marvin Harrison Jr. (low-end flex)
SITS: Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Panthers DST
Early weather reports forecast a typical December day in Chicago without much wind or precipitation … but about 30 degrees. Goff has played 18 career games when the gametime temperature is 50 degrees or colder, playoffs included, and he’s exceeded 20 Fantasy points just three times and just once out of eight times since joining the Lions (at Carolina in 2022). That’s not great. And in the past, Goff has not seen a bump from not having David Montgomery in his backfield — in three games without Montgomery last season, Goff scored 20.02 or fewer Fantasy points, while Gibbs had at least 27 PPR points in two of the three. That’s also not great. But hey, the Lions are a better squad this year, and they should be able to beat up on the Bears, right? Well, they scored 23 points on them on Thanksgiving, a short-week game, and Goff had 221 yards and two scores (about 21 Fantasy points) on 34 pass attempts. Yes, the Bears have allowed at least 20 Fantasy points to four of their past five opposing passers (they did get a little lucky last week). Plus, the Bears have been busted for 24-plus points by a QB just three times all year. And for whatever it’s worth, Goff has notched north of 21 Fantasy points once in seven meetings against Chicago since arriving in Motown — and it was at Ford Field. It’s all correlation, but be careful when you consider starting Goff this week — he doesn’t feel like a top-tier passer.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta
FLEX: Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift (non-PPR), D.J. Moore (PPR)
SITS: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze (desperation WR), Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson, Craig Reynolds, Lions DST, Bears DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
STARTS: Jerome Ford (No. 2 RB), Bengals DST
FLEX: Jerry Jeudy
SITS: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Elijah Moore, Mike Gesicki, Jordan Akins, Browns DST
STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Tony Pollard
FLEX: Calvin Ridley, Tyjae Spears (PPR)
SITS: Mason Rudolph, Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs (desperation PPR WR), Michael Pittman (desperation PPR WR), Chig Okonkwo, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Adonai Mitchell, Colts DST, Titans DST
As good as Rodgers’ game was last week (three touchdowns), it could have been better. Some drops and miscommunications cost the Jets what might have been extra yards. Keep in mind that they beat up on a Jaguars squad that struggled to tightly cover Davante Adams in man coverage and pressured Aaron Rodgers on just 25% of his dropbacks. The Rams aren’t that big of a step up in class — they’ve had an average pass-rush pressure rate over their past five games with just seven sacks. They also play a lot of zone coverage, which Rodgers has been tepid against on the year. Because of their struggling run defense, L.A.’s only had five quarterbacks attempt more than 31 passes against them this year; 3 of the 5 had over 20 Fantasy points, including Josh Allen’s nuclear 57.9 in Week 14. Only a third of the remaining nine primary QBs with 31 or fewer attempts had north of 20. Rodgers’ pathways to throwing a lot is clear: Gamescript could force the Jets to play from behind, and the Jets run game is a legit question mark (Breece Hall didn’t look right last week). Both keep Rodgers in play as a solid Fantasy starter in a home game that could be high-scoring.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp (No. 2 WR),
STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers (low-end starter), Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall (borderline starter)
SITS: Isaiah Davis, Demarcus Robinson, Allen Lazard, Rams DST, Jets DST
I wouldn’t bet against Jayden Daniels. When he played the Eagles in Week 11, he was on a short turnaround and still dealing with a rib injury and wasn’t using his legs as much as he was earlier in the year. Ten days after that, he looked much more like his old self and has ripped the Cowboys, Titans, and Saints defenses for at least 27 Fantasy points each. I can’t say he’ll be that good against the Eagles, but his situation is different for this game, and after Lamar Jackson did well against them back in Week 13, I circled this matchup and figure Daniels can give a good performance. I’d also expect Daniels to do more because Brian Robinson might do less — he was incredibly disappointing in a good matchup last week and really only showed speed and explosiveness on one play, a 20-yard lateral screen away from the offensive line. Robinson had 14.2 PPR points back in Week 11, but that was on a short week where both he and Austin Ekeler had success on the ground. Those two are part of the only five running backs who have had 14-plus PPR points against the Eagles all year, and the Eagles have let up just 3.7 yards per rush in their past five.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Terry McLaurin (No. 2 WR), Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith, Brian Robinson (non-PPR)
SITS: Dyami Brown (desperation starter), Grant Calcaterra, Ben Sinnott, Kenneth Gainwell, Jeremy McNichols, Commanders DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Zach Charbonnet (as long as Ken Walker is out), Aaron Jones, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Vikings DST
FLEX: DK Metcalf
SITS: Geno Smith, T.J. Hockenson (high-end No. 2 TE), Cam Akers, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, Seahawks DST
OBVIOUS STARTS: Brock Bowers
STARTS: Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Travis Etienne (No. 2 RB), Brenton Strange (PPR)
FLEX: Alexander Mattison
SITS: Aidan O’Connell, Mac Jones, Ameer Abdullah (desperation PPR RB), Parker Washington, Tank Bigsby, Raiders DST, Jaguars DST
Tua Tagovailoa’s average time to throw was at 2.69 seconds last week, his longest of the year. Usually, he’s under 2.4 seconds, which is why it almost doesn’t matter how much a defense blitzes him because he’ll get the ball out before any defenders get near him. Curiously, all three of his interceptions came when he wasn’t really under heavy defensive pressure but rather when he had seemingly pre-determined plans to throw to Tyreek Hill. That’s bad, but throwing picks isn’t something Tagovailoa usually does — he has only seven interceptions on the year. The expectation this week is for San Francisco to keep playing a lot of zone coverage without blitzing. Their cornerbacks have been playing great for the past few weeks and should be able to keep big plays from happening because they don’t miss a lot of tackles. It makes for an interesting spot for Tagovailoa: He should pass a lot, just as he has been all year, but his efficiency is at risk due to the matchup. He can win with his pass-catchers making plays after the catch, and the more he throws, the more likely that will happen. That’s literally the only reason to start Tagovailoa — in seven games with at least 30 pass attempts (over 35 attempts), he’s scored at least 20.6 points in five and 27-plus in four. That kind of upside is tough to leave on the bench.
The Dolphins have been close to letting up a big game to an opposing quarterback. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdowns last week but only attempted 26 passes on a 7.5-yard average depth of throw. Aaron Rodgers did throw a lot the week before and had over 300 yards but only one touchdown. Jordan Love threw for 274 yards and two scores in Week 13, the best any quarterback has done against Miami since Josh Allen’s Week 9 bombardment. Point is, this is a good defense, complete with a competent pass rush and secondary. Because their run defense is also not a weakness (3.8 yards per carry allowed in their past five games), Purdy might have to put the ball in the air a little bit more than normal. It could lead to a decent Fantasy game, somewhere in between Stroud and Love’s performances, but probably not one with three touchdowns or 275 yards.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (No. 2 WR), George Kittle
STARTS: Tua Tagovailoa (low-end starter), Jonnu Smith, Isaac Guerendo (No. 2 RB), 49ers DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Jauan Jennings (low-end No. 2 PPR WR)
SITS: Brock Purdy (borderline starter), Raheem Mostert, Malik Washington, Dolphins DST
It’s been fun watching Jalen McMillan become a larger part of the Buccaneers offense. He’s had a 23.6% target per route run rate over his past two games, he’s won on a number of diverse routes, and he’s got speed. So long as he continues to land a lot of playing time, and I don’t think anyone else on the Bucs roster can pull him off the field, he should be useful as a No. 3 receiver in Fantasy. The Cowboys tend to pressure the quarterback a good amount, so Mayfield will need McMillan on shorter routes. The rookie has racked a 69.2% catch rate and 5.1 YAC/reception, both of which suggest he can turn short plays into longer ones, though the matchup would be even better if I thought Dallas would play more man-to-man coverage, which I doubt.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle
FLEX: Jalen McMillan, Rachaad White
SITS: Cooper Rush (high-end No. 2 QB), Jake Ferguson (low-end PPR TE), Cade Otton, Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, Ezekiel Elliott, Buccaneers DST, Cowboys DST
This figures to be a good opportunity for Kendre Miller to lead the Saints backfield. He did as much last week after Alvin Kamara left the game, playing 88% of the Saints snaps and getting 100% of the RB touches. He was fast, he followed his blockers, and had excellent vision with good balance and just enough power to get extra yards. This should make Miller the Saints’ best rushing threat. The Packers have let up 13 or more PPR points to six running backs in their past six games, but not a single RB had over 100 total yards against them. It’s been receptions and touchdowns that have helped rushers find good Fantasy numbers against Green Bay, not yardage — the Packers have halted backs to 3.7 yards per rush in their past five games. Think of Miller as a flex, not a must-start.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: Packers DST
FLEX: Romeo Doubs (PPR), Kendre Miller, Jayden Reed (low-end flex)
SITS: Jordan Love (high-end No. 2 QB), Spencer Rattler, Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson (low-end non-PPR WR), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (desperation WR), Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams, Dante Pettis, Saints DST
