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Lions vs. Packers odds, line, spread: NFL picks, Thanksgiving Day predictions from model on 175-126 run

The Detroit Lions will try to complete a sweep of the season series when they host the NFC North-rival Green Bay Packers in their annual NFL Thanksgiving Day game on Thursday. Detroit (8-2) posted a 34-20 victory at Green Bay in Week 4 for its fourth consecutive win against the Packers. The first-place Lions, who are seeking their first division title since 1993, recorded a 31-26 comeback triumph over Chicago last week for their third straight victory, while Green Bay (4-6) edged the Los Angeles Chargers, 23-20.

Kickoff at Ford Field is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Lions vs. Packers odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 47. Before making any Packers vs. Lions picks of your own, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Lions vs. Packers and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Packers vs. Lions:

  • Lions vs. Packers spread: Detroit -7.5
  • Lions vs. Packers over/under: 47 points
  • Lions vs. Packers money line: Detroit -362, Green Bay +288
  • DET: Lions are 4-0 against the spread in their last four meetings with Green Bay
  • GB: Packers are 4-7 ATS on Thanksgiving in the Super Bowl era
  • Lions vs. Packers picks: See picks here
  • Lions vs. Packers live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Lions can cover

Detroit trailed the Bears 26-14 with three minutes remaining last Sunday before staging an impressive comeback. Jared Goff threw three interceptions for the first time since Sept. 29, 2019 against Tampa Bay while with the Los Angeles Rams, but was superb in the fourth quarter versus Chicago, completing 11-of-14 pass attempts for 120 yards and a touchdown. The 29-year-old quarterback connected with Jameson Williams for a 32-yard TD with 2:59 left, then was 5-of-7 on Detroit’s next drive after the Bears went 3-and-out to set up David Montgomery’s 1-yard scoring run.

Goff ranks in the top 10 with a 68.1 completion percentage and is fifth with 2,743 passing yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the top receivers in the league and is seventh with 73 receptions and fifth with 898 yards. The 24-year-old wideout has posted six 100-yard performances this season and hauled in a touchdown pass in four of his last six contests, including the Week 4 victory at Green Bay. See which team to pick here.

Why the Packers can cover

Green Bay has won two of its last three contests following a four-game slide that began with the home loss to Detroit. Quarterback Jordan Love is coming off the first 300-yard performance of his career as he threw for 322 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Sunday’s win against the Chargers. It was the first 300-yard effort by a Packers quarterback since Week 14 of the 2021 season, when Aaron Rodgers racked up 341 yards against the Bears.

Wide receiver Romeo Doubs hauled in Love’s late TD toss last week for his career-high seventh scoring catch of the season and fourth in five games. The 23-year-old leads the Packers this year with 38 receptions and is second on the team with 396 receiving yards. He trails rookie Jayden Reed, who has made 32 catches for 463 yards and four touchdowns. The 23-year-old Reed was Green Bay’s leading rusher last week with 46 yards and a TD on only three attempts after the team lost Aaron Jones (knee) and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) to injuries. See which team to pick here.

How to make Lions vs. Packers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, predicting 45 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Lions vs. Packers on Thanksgiving Day, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Packers vs. Lions spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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