Unless you’re a diehard fan of a team playing in March Madness or used the autofill feature to complete your tournament bracket, there’s a strong chance you picked (or are considering picking) one or more double-digit seeds to win in the first round and beyond in the NCAA Tournament.
If you fit that description, you’re in the right place. With first-round action in the NCAA Tournament drawing near, it’s time to make the final tweaks to your bracket before the madness of one of the most exhilarating sporting events in the world tips off with a matchup between No. 9 seed Creighton and No. 8 seed Louisville at 12:15 p.m. ET on Thursday.
It’s bracket time! Play for a Nissan Armada and Final Four® trips by joining our Men’s and Women’s Challenges.
CBS Sports has already previewed potential Cinderella teams to keep an eye on. This story is about sleeper teams that can go on a run to the second round or all the way to the Final Four. Without further ado, let’s jump into some teams to consider –and avoid — when filling out your bracket.
Let me start by saying that this is nothing against UC San Diego. The Tritons have had an incredible season and will be a dangerous out for Michigan. If you’re already sold on UC San Diego, perhaps read about why they are a sleeper from CBS Sports’ David Cobb or how the Tritons made the NCAA Tournament in Year 1 of being eligible from Zachary Pereles.
Let’s dive into why I’m fading UC San Diego in the first round. First off, Michigan’s two-big lineup of Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf should cause problems for a small UCSD lineup. This Michigan team knows how to win close games, which matters in a chaotic environment like the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has won its last 11 games in games decided by five points or fewer. I trust Dusty May — who has experience making a deep run in this tournament — to get past UCSD in the first round. UC San Diego appears to be the most popular pick on the No. 12 line to advance. It’s easy to fall in love with the idea of them making a big run, but the obvious pick in the NCAA Tournament sometimes isn’t the right one.
Sleeper team for first round: Colorado State
In my West Region preview, I highlighted Drake as a Cinderella team. I also talked about No. 5 seed Memphis and how Penny Hardaway’s program will make a far-too-early exit in the tournament. No. 12 seed Colorado State is the team that plays Memphis in the first round, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if the Rams advance. Colorado State has been playing elimination since the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Colorado State would’ve been left out of the NCAA Tournament had it lost to Boise State in the MWC title game.
So, what makes Colorado State a worthy pick? It starts with star wing Nique Clifford. The 6-foot-5 forward is averaging 19 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 rebounds per game. Clifford is also Colorado State’s best defender, which means he could be guarding Memphis star PJ Haggerty, the third-leading scorer in the country. Another reason for an upset is the uncertainty around Tyrese Hunter’s status for the NCAA Tournament. Hunter suffered a foot injury in the AAC Tournament and missed the conference title game win over UAB last weekend. Without Hunter’s scoring punch in the lineup, Clifford will have one less player to worry about on offense.
Memphis has shown its vulnerability with horrible Quad 3 losses to Temple and Arkansas State and is one of the biggest boom-or-bust teams in the tournament. Colorado State finished with a top-50 offense and defense in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com. If you’re looking for a No. 12 seed to win in the first round, consider Colorado State.
2025 March Madness bracket picks: NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams to consider when filling out your bracket
David Cobb
Sleeper team for Sweet 16: New Mexico
Let’s stay in the Mountain West for the next sleeper. If you haven’t watched New Mexico guard Donovan Dent yet, pull up some YouTube highlights or watch the clip attached below. Dent is a superstar and will be playing in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in his college career. Dent struggled in a loss to Clemson in last year’s tournament, and a matchup against Marquette’s Kam Jones in the first round is must-see TV. New Mexico loves to push the pace. Dent is a high-volume scorer in transition, and his team ranked as the fifth-fastest team in the country in time per possession (15.1). Marquette ranked in the 90th percentile per KenPom in transition defense.
If the Lobos can make it out of the first round, a matchup (likely) against No. 2 seed Michigan State would be on the table. The Spartans ranked 132nd in transition offense (17.3 seconds per possession) and 149th in transition defense (17.5). Michigan State’s biggest weakness is its outside shooting. The Spartans ranked No. 327 in 3-point percentage (30.8). If New Mexico can turn the game against Michigan State into a track meet, the Lobos could be heading toward their first Sweet 16 appearance since 1974.
Sleeper team for Final Four: Gonzaga
The last time Gonzaga failed to advance out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was 2014. The Bulldogs have reached the Sweet 16 (or later) every year since, and this could be the year for another run. Gonzaga’s overall resume explains why the Bulldogs landed on the No. 8 line, but advanced metrics suggest they deserve a higher spot. Gonzaga ranks No. 9 in KenPom’s rankings ahead of Iowa State, St. John’s, Maryland and Wisconsin. Gonzaga ranked No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranked in the top 10 in 2-point percentage (57.8%), free throw percentage (80.1%) and steal percentage (7.4).
The path for Gonzaga to reach the Final Four won’t be easy. It starts with a tough Georgia team in the first round. If the Bulldogs win that game, a matchup against No. 1 seed Houston would (more than likely) be on deck. I am confident that the winner of that game — if it happen –) will be the team that makes it to the Final Four out of the Midwest Region. The reason is the other top seeds in the region have major question marks around them. No. 2 seed Tennessee is elite defensively but has been vulnerable at times. No. 3 seed Kentucky will be without star guard Jaxson Robinson for the tournament. No. 4 seed Purdue could be on upset alert against No. 13 seed High Point in the first round. The same goes for No. 5 seed Clemson (vs. McNeese) and No. 6 seed Illinois (vs. the winner of Xavier/Texas).
If Gonzaga can get out of the first weekend, anything is possible. For what it’s worth, Gonzaga was my pick to represent the Midwest region in the Final Four. If you’re looking for an outside-the-box pick (that’s not a top seed) to reach the Final Four, consider Gonzaga.
