Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight predictions, odds, expert picks, undercard for the mega event on Netflix

One of the most anticipated — and criticized — fights in modern boxing history goes down on Friday night when social media star-turned-boxer Jake Paul steps into the ring with 58-year-old former undisputed heavyweight champion Mike Tyson. It’s a strange fight but one that has captured the attention of most of the sporting world.

Adding to the amount of attention the fight has drawn is that it will be available to stream for free for anyone with a Netflix account. Between the availability of the fight and big gate numbers at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, Tyson vs. Paul will be one of the most talked about sporting events of the year.

Paul has been mostly dominant in his young career, only dropping a split decision against Tommy Fury. He has either stopped or knocked down every opponent he has been in the ring with, including a litany of former mixed martial arts stars.

“Yeah, it’s cute. I fear no man. So I want him to be that old savage Mike,” Paul said at the final press conference. “He says he’s going to kill me. I’m ready. I want that killer. I want the hardest match possible Friday night, and I want there to be no excuses from everyone at home when I knock him out.”

Tyson is 31 years Paul’s senior but appears to be in fantastic shape for his age. That said, he did suffer an ulcer flare-up that forced a postponement of the fight from the summer to Friday night.

The undercard also features some tremendous action for hardcore boxing fans. A rematch of arguably the best women’s fight in the modern era is set for the co-main event when Katie Taylor looks to defend her undisputed junior welterweight title against Amanda Serrano. The pair were the first women’s fight to main event at Madison Square Garden in 2022 when Taylor earned a split decision to retain the undisputed lightweight titles. After moving up in weight, Taylor claimed the undisputed crown once more.

What will happen when the brash young star steps in with the 58-year-old legend is anyone’s guess, but the CBS Sports experts have done their best to break down what they believe will happen in the fight.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest betting odds from DraftKings sportsbook before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities. Be sure to take advantage of the latest DraftKings promo to get in on the action on Friday night.

Tyson vs. Paul fight card, odds

With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main event. Here are your pick makers: Brian Campbell (Combat sports writer), Brent Brookhouse (Combat sports writer), Adam Silverstein (director of editorial) and Brandon Wise (senior editor).

Tyson vs. Paul picks, predictions

Campbell: Even at 58, Tyson appears to have retained enough power and explosiveness to be a big enough early threat that Paul may need to take his time attempting to break the former undisputed heavyweight champion down. And considering the fight is scheduled for eight, two-minute rounds and will be contested using 14-ounce gloves (as opposed to 10 ounces), it isn’t out of the question to entertain a scenario in which Tyson gains a moral victory simply by going the distance. The hardest part for Tyson will be keeping up with the younger fighter’s pace, which is why it’s difficult to predict a Tyson upset in any other form than him landing the perfect knockout punch early. This is Paul’s fight to lose and he should have enough youthful advantages to get the job done. As long as Tyson establishes the threat of his power early, this one could easily devolve into a clinching fest for the majority of the fight as Paul does enough to outwork the Hall of Famer while remaining responsible enough defensively to avoid an embarrassing loss. 

Brookhouse: One of the most annoying things during Paul’s boxing career has been the shouts from uninformed observers that the fights have been “fixed.” Admittedly, this fight feels like the one time Paul ventures to the ring that there could be something of a gentleman’s agreement to not go all out and just give the fans a show. I don’t really think that’s necessary with the rules that include just two-minute rounds and gloves that are 40% larger than standard. Short rounds and big gloves remove most of the threat of a knockout, though there’s no real sense of certainty when it comes to the punch resistance of a nearly 60-year-old man. I expect Tyson to have a few nice moments early before getting worn down a bit and Paul being able to just grind out rounds behind youth and a body that doesn’t have Tyson’s amount of mileage and hard years.

Silverstein: Look, I’m not going to pretend as if I have any idea what’s going to happen here. You all know how boxing works and everything that could be at play in a situation like this, particularly when it comes to judging. Tyson has looked fast in clips shown from his training camp, but does he have enough gas in the tank to move like that across eight rounds, even if they are 2 minutes each? Paul has 31 years and 5 inches of reach on the former undisputed heavyweight champion, and that’s gotta count for something … but does it, really? With 14-ounce gloves, it’s tough to see a knockout happening here. If this fight is being scored as it should be – punches landed – without any shenanigans, I cannot imagine Paul being able to outwit Tyson, who will not give him enough distance for his swinging haymakers. Give me the plus money and the actual boxer.

Who wins Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul on November 15, and which Paul vs. Tyson props should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see Brandon Wise’s best bets for the Nov. 15 bout, all from the CBS combat sports specialist who just called Paul’s first-round win in March, and find out.