MLB picks, best bets for NLCS Game 7: Phillies, Bryce Harper trying to save season at home

One last game before the World Series is on tap. Monday’s afternoon action was not kind to us, as I took an 0-2 here and also missed my play on SportsLine. It was bound to happen eventually, given the run I was on before that one started. Jose Altuve picked me up in the first inning of the second game, pushing the playoff record here in MLB best bets to 32-14. 

One last chance to beef that record up before the Fall Classic. Let’s do it. 

Starting pitchers: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72/0-0, 2.13) vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (4-6, 4.18/1-0, 0.64)

It’s “All Hands on Deck” here in Game 7, which means it’s possible we’ll see the likes of Zack Wheeler and/or Zac Gallen, but both Suárez and Pfaadt were great in Game 3. 

Give credit to the Diamondbacks for making me completely wrong with my Game 6 prediction that it would just be a Philly block party, but I’m not relenting based upon one result. I’ve said the Phillies are the better team and will win this series all series, so there’s no reason to back off now. The D-backs, in turn, get to keep saying no one believes in them. It’s fine. I don’t! I’m a big boy. I can take the blowback if I’m wrong. 

The play: Phillies over 4.5 runs (+100), Bryce Harper over 0.5 walks (-115), Ketel Marte over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135)

I just can’t see the Phillies bats contained two nights in a row in this ballpark and they just saw Pfaadt at Chase Field less than a week ago. A second look in a venue they like better bodes well for them. If he shuts them down again, it’s still possible they’ll crush some of the main bullpen arms that they’ve seen so much in this series. 

It seems like the Diamondbacks have decided to pitch around Harper, for the most part, and that Phillies manager Rob Thomson is determined to leave Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott behind Harper. We only need one walk to get home here and I believe we’ll get it. 

On the D-backs’ end, Marte has been on fire and deserves a look. He’ll be hitting leadoff with a lefty starting for the Phillies and he was 3 for 5 with an RBI in Game 3 in this same pitching matchup. He’s a switch hitter, but he hits lefties much harder than righties. Overall this postseason, he’s hitting .375/.400/.625 with four doubles, a triple, two homers, seven RBI and six runs. He’s gone over 1.5 H+R+RBI in nine of his 11 games so far. 

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