The Moody’s Analytics presidential forecasting model projects that it will be a close 2024 election, but President Biden will beat Donald Trump to win reelection.
According to the first Moody’s presidential forecast:
Given the results of recent party primaries, the most likely scenario is that this election will be a rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. While the election will almost certainly be a nail biter, we feel confident in the model’s 2024 prediction for who will be the next president. That is, President Biden will win re-election.
Under any scenario, the upcoming presidential election will be close. If the economy continues to perform well as we anticipate and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win re-election. But these are big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics. We will update the results of our model each month up through Election Day based on incoming economic data and the latest economic outlook. These updates, as well as more in-depth analysis on individual swing states and counties and the implications for fiscal policy, will be available in coming months.
Moody’s stresses that this is their first presidential model and forecast of the year, so it should be looked at as a starting point for where the election could end up.
The factors are increasingly favoring a win by President Biden, and the difference between Trump as a candidate in 2016 and Trump as a candidate in decline who is a known entity in 2024 is huge. Trump is also running against an incumbent president who has all the benefits of incumbency working in his favor.
Not even including the lawsuits and 91 criminal felony counts, Trump is facing a more difficult uphill climb back to the White House.
Slowly but surely, the media is starting to realize that President Biden is in a good position to win reelection.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association