The road to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX begins on Saturday with the first of six games on Wild Card Weekend. But for some teams, the road is harder than it is for others.
The Broncos, obviously, have the most difficult path to New Orleans as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Bo Nix & Co. have to beat the second-seeded Bills and the top-seeded and two-time reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs—both on the road—just to get to the AFC Championship Game. But if Denver reaches the conference title game, which opponent there would the Broncos have the best chance against?
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, has crunched the numbers and identified each playoff team’s most ideal road to lift the Lombardi Trophy. Here’s a little teaser: According to the model, all AFC teams should be rooting for the Rams.
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Broncos
AFC Championship Game: Texans
Super Bowl: Rams
The two-time reigning Super Bowl champions have a bye into the Divisional Round by virtue of being the No. 1 seed in the AFC. According to the model, the Chiefs have less than a 46% chance in a matchup against the Bills (45.8)—who gave Kansas City its first loss of the season in Week 11—or the Ravens (44.2), whom the Chiefs narrowly defeated in Week 1. That’s despite the fact that Kansas City would have home-field advantage over both. But the Chiefs have a greater than 60% chance to win against every other AFC team.
If the Chiefs make the Super Bowl, the model says their worst matchup would be the Packers, who are the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Kansas City beats Green Bay in just 40.2% of simulations.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Texans
AFC Championship Game: Steelers
Super Bowl: Rams
Josh Allen and the Bills are looking to end the franchise’s Super Bowl title drought. To do so, they may have to knock off the two-time defending champion Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. According to the SportsLine Projection Model Buffalo, which beat Kansas City 30-21 in Week 11 at Highmark Stadium, has a 54.2% chance in a rematch with the Chiefs, even though that game would be played in Kansas City. The Bills also have a 57.3% chance against the Ravens in a game that would be played in Buffalo. Lamar Jackson & Co. beat the Bills 35-10 in Week 4, but that game was in Baltimore.
The model also says that Buffalo wins 55.3% of simulations in a Super Bowl matchup against the NFC No. 1 seed Lions, who were beaten by the Bills 48-42 in Week 15.
| Bills | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 54.2 |
| Ravens | 57.3 |
| Texans | 73.9 |
| Chargers | 69.9 |
| Steelers | 70.1 |
| Broncos | 73.6 |
| Lions | 55.3 |
| Eagles | 52.3 |
| Buccaneers | 63.2 |
| Rams | 74.2 |
| Vikings | 64.8 |
| Commanders | 65.3 |
| Packers | 50.9 |
No. 3 Baltimore Ravens
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Texans
AFC Championship Game: Broncos
Super Bowl: Rams
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson can begin to improve his playoff reputation if he and the Ravens can make a deep run in the postseason. Assuming they get by the rival Steelers on Saturday, they’ll be big fans of someone beating the Bills. Even though Baltimore hammered Buffalo 35-10 earlier in the season at M&T Bank Stadium, the SportsLine Projection Model says no team poses a bigger threat to the Ravens than the Bills. Baltimore wins just 42.7% of simulations against Buffalo in a game that would be played in upstate New York. By contrast, the Ravens beat the top-seeded and two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs 55.8% of the time.
| Ravens | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 55.8 |
| Bills | 42.7 |
| Texans | 73.0 |
| Chargers | 69.3 |
| Steelers | 70.7 |
| Broncos | 71.1 |
| Lions | 56.1 |
| Eagles | 52.7 |
| Buccaneers | 62.6 |
| Rams | 72.7 |
| Vikings | 64.8 |
| Commanders | 63.4 |
| Packers | 49.5 |
No. 4 Houston Texans
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Steelers
AFC Championship Game: Broncos
Super Bowl: Rams
The SportsLine Projection Model says that every AFC team should want to play the Texans. Houston went 1-5 against teams that ended up reaching the playoffs this season, with the lone win coming against the Bills in walk-off fashion in Houston. Despite that victory over Buffalo, the model says the Texans have the worst chance at beating the Bills (26.1%) than any other team, including those in the NFC.
If Houston gets by the Chargers on Saturday (the model says the Texans win just 47.1% of the time despite being at home), the Texans should be rooting for both the Broncos and Steelers. Houston would face those teams at home and have a better than 50% chance of winning over each.
| Texans | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 31.4 |
| Bills | 26.1 |
| Ravens | 27.0 |
| Chargers | 47.1 |
| Steelers | 50.7 |
| Broncos | 53.5 |
| Lions | 35.1 |
| Eagles | 33.4 |
| Buccaneers | 43.3 |
| Rams | 56.9 |
| Vikings | 46.0 |
| Commanders | 44.7 |
| Packers | 33.4 |
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Steelers
AFC Championship Game: Broncos
Super Bowl: Rams
One year after leading the Michigan Wolverines to the national championship, Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh finds himself in another single-elimination tournament. This playoff is considerably harder for Harbaugh though; Los Angeles went 8-1 against teams .500 or worse this season but just 2-5 against teams that made the playoffs. Both of those wins came against the Broncos.
If the Chargers advance to the Divisional Round, they’ll be rooting hard against the Bills and Ravens. According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Los Angeles has a better chance of beating the Chiefs (38.2%) than either Buffalo (30.1%) or Baltimore (30.7%).
| Chargers | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 38.2 |
| Bills | 30.1 |
| Ravens | 30.7 |
| Texans | 52.9 |
| Steelers | 58.8 |
| Broncos | 58.4 |
| Lions | 40.5 |
| Eagles | 37.7 |
| Buccaneers | 47.7 |
| Rams | 63.5 |
| Vikings | 51.4 |
| Commanders | 50.0 |
| Packers | 37.4 |
No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Texans
AFC Championship Game: Broncos
Super Bowl: Rams
Before the Steelers start thinking about their road to New Orleans, they need to worry about themselves first. They have lost four in a row and have scored just 14.3 points per game over the losing streak. Meanwhile their wild-card opponent, the Ravens, have won four in a row, winning each game by at least 17 points.
If Pittsburgh is able to upset its hated AFC North rival, the Steelers could be staring at a Divisional Round showdown against the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium (unless the Broncos pull off the upset in Buffalo). While playing the two-time defending Super Bowl champions on their field coming off a bye week is far from ideal, the SportsLine Projection Model says that scenario is better for Pittsburgh than playing the Bills in the Divisional Round. The model gives Pittsburgh a 36.2% chance in Kansas City and just a 29.9% chance in Buffalo.
| Steelers | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 36.2 |
| Bills | 29.9 |
| Ravens | 29.3 |
| Texans | 49.3 |
| Chargers | 41.2 |
| Broncos | 59.3 |
| Lions | 39.7 |
| Eagles | 35.9 |
| Buccaneers | 47.2 |
| Rams | 62.5 |
| Vikings | 48.3 |
| Commanders | 48.0 |
| Packers | 36.2 |
No. 7 Denver Broncos
Ideal road
Divisional Round: Chiefs
AFC Championship Game: Texans
Super Bowl: Rams
As the No. 7 seed in the AFC, the Broncos have their road to New Orleans pretty much set. If they’re able to upset Buffalo in upstate New York on Sunday (they have a 26.4% chance of winning according to the SportsLine Projection Model), they’ll head to Kansas City to face the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Denver crushed Kansas City 38-0 to close the regular season and earn a spot in the playoffs, but the Chiefs sat quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and several other starters to rest up for the postseason.
The only team that the model says the Broncos have a better than 50% chance of beating is the Rams (60.1%), whom the Broncos wouldn’t see until the Super Bowl.
| Broncos | |
| Opponent | Win percentage |
| Chiefs | 35.4 |
| Bills | 26.4 |
| Ravens | 28.9 |
| Texans | 46.5 |
| Chargers | 41.6 |
| Steelers | 40.7 |
| Lions | 38.9 |
| Eagles | 35.8 |
| Buccaneers | 45.3 |
| Rams | 60.1 |
| Vikings | 49.9 |
| Commanders | 49.4 |
| Packers | 34.6 |
As for the six Wild Card Weekend games, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified one A-grade pick based on model simulations. You can find that top-tier Wild Card Weekend NFL pick at SportsLine.
