Rivalry week across college football really had it all. There was fighting, flag-planting, eight overtimes, rivalries renewed and rivalry narratives reinforced. We saw Heisman Trophy contenders demand the spotlight and College Football Playoff contenders shrink when the lights were the brightest. And after a handful of top 25 teams took losses, the voters in the AP Top 25 poll have to figure out out how the best teams in college football stack up against each other.
Since Oregon once again handled its business with a blowout win against Washington to finish as the only 12-0 team in the country, the great debate will be around what happens at No. 2 within the rest of the top 10 in the wake of Ohio State’s stunning loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes will likely stay within the top 10, but they’ll also be facing a much stiffer punishment: having to await their first-round seeding from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee instead of playing for a Big Ten championship in Indianapolis.
Texas offered a great argument to be No. 2 on Saturday night in its rivalry win against Texas A&M, rounding out an 11-1 regular season for the second straight year under Steve Sarkisian. For the second straight year, the Longhorns will be playing for a conference title. But they are not without competition; Penn State and Notre Dame finished their seasons with double-digit wins that bolster their arguments as the top one-loss team in the country.
There will also be plenty of attention on where Miami falls after its loss to Syracuse and how that relates the College Football Playoff picture, as well as any upward movement for South Carolina after winning at Clemson, the team that benefited most the Hurricanes’ loss. The College Football Playoff narratives will resonate throughout the poll as voters make their judgements known two days before the selection committee releases its updated top 25 heading into championship weekend.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look after Week 14.
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): It is impossible for a team to be any “more” unanimous of a No. 1 team in the poll, but if it was possible, we would see that after the Ducks returned from an off week with a 49-21 blowout win against rival Washington.
2. Texas (3): The Longhorns now have a new best win thanks to a stellar defensive performance on the road at Texas A&M. Up next for Texas in Atlanta is a shot not only to win the SEC championship in Year 1 as a conference member but also to avenge the only defeat on the team’s one-loss rankings profile.
3. Penn State (4): Even though Penn State’s one loss is to an Ohio State team that will be tumbling in the rankings, the Nittany Lions’ one-loss profile remains strong after a 44-7 throttling of Maryland. But given the way the votes fell last week, the win added more strength to their position and held off a Notre Dame team that’s been picking up steam in the rankings in recent weeks. But all that matters for James Franklin’s team now is the opportunity ahead to take on No. 1 for the Big Ten championship next Saturday night.
4. Notre Dame (5): We won’t get to see the Fighting Irish again before Selection Sunday, but the final impression offered a bit of everything as Notre Dame logged its first road win at USC since 2018. The 49-35 victory wasn’t perfect, but it did mark a bigger margin of victory than Penn State’s overtime win in Los Angeles earlier this season. Look for that data point to become a point of emphasis for the debate among top teams heading into the week, though the AP voters in the consensus might not be bold enough for a spot swap in the rankings.
5. Georgia (6): The way Georgia is discussed might change coming out of Friday night’s eight-overtime epic against Georgia Tech, but the way the Bulldogs are ranked by the AP voters won’t change. A recent head-to-head win against Tennessee makes a comfortable floor for stacking top-10 teams, and there’s another chance to prove their worthiness coming up next week in the SEC Championship Game.
6. Tennessee (7): Just a slight bump up for the Vols in the midst of a shakeup in the top 10 and a solid 36-23 win at Vanderbilt to finish the regular season with a 10-2 record.
7. SMU (9): The ACC Championship Game spot was already locked up, yet SMU was able to handle its business in a way the rest of the conference’s top teams were not, and it’s going to give the Mustangs a strong rankings position heading into next week’s matchup with Clemson.
8. Ohio State (2): Having that recent head-to-head win against Indiana makes life pretty easy for voters who have not been comparing the Buckeyes’ resume against other teams in this portion of the rankings. With the Penn State win, you could see Ohio State as high as No. 5, yet we’re projecting the voters to be more aggressive with the drop due to the unexpected nature of a home loss to unranked Michigan as a 19-point favorite.
9. Indiana (10): All of the frustrations of the Ohio State loss were taken out on rival Purdue in ruthless fashion as the Hoosiers poured it on for four quarters to the tune of a 66-0 win.
10. Boise State (11): Ashton Jeanty chewed through Oregon State’s defense to the tune of 226 yards in a 16-point win against Oregon State. Jeanty has two guaranteed opportunities left with the Mountain West title game and at least one more postseason game; he currently sits just 340 yards behind Barry Sanders’ single-season FBS rushing record.
11. Miami (8): From an inside track to the program’s first-ever ACC championship to potentially falling out of the College Football Playoff picture, a lot was lost for Miami in Saturday’s defeat at Syracuse. In terms of the AP Top 25, there’s a pretty high floor considering it’s just the second loss of the season for the Hurricanes, but the floor for the rankings includes falling behind some three-loss teams as well.
12. Alabama (13): The Crimson Tide had a pretty large gap in voting points between their position at No. 13 last week and Boise State at No. 11, indicating a tier for many voters on their ballots. We’re not projecting any reason for major moves out of that grouping after a 14-point win in the Iron Bowl that wraps Kalen DeBoer’s first regular season with a 9-3 record.
13. South Carolina (16): Now 9-3 after a 17-14 win at Clemson, the Gamecocks were not in this tier before and many voters were respecting the Ole Miss result. But as South Carolina rides a six-game win streak, it’s getting harder to think the team that beat Clemson in Death Valley is the same one that lost 27-3 to the Rebels earlier this season.
14. Arizona State (14): What an incredible run for Arizona State to go from being projected as one of the worst teams in the Big 12 to securing a spot in the conference title game. While other teams faltered or sputtered with conference title hopes on the line, the Sun Devils were emphatic in announcing their contender status with a 49-7 victory against rival Arizona.
15. Ole Miss (15): The Rebels didn’t do much to inspire voters with their 26-14 win against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. The Friday afternoon time slot opened the door for a lot of voters to get their eyes on the action, and Ole Miss did enough to win but maybe not enough to sway voters trying to make tough decisions between two-loss and three-loss teams on their ballot.
16. Clemson (12): It’s an odd conclusion to the holiday weekend for Clemson, who in the same day lost to their bitter rival in heartbreaking fashion but also clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game. The AP voters will adjust their ballots in the wake of the loss, which is Clemson’s third of the season, but there could be a high floor for the drop given the stock of its surging opponent.
17. Iowa State (17): A hard-fought 29-21 win against Kansas State put the Cyclones in position to be one of the teams tied at the top of the Big 12 standings with a 7-2 conference record. It also marks a breakthrough for the Matt Campbell era as the first 10-win campaign in his nine-season tenure with the program.
18. BYU (19): The Cougars closed out the top 25 action for Week 14 with a win against Houston that gave the team a share of first place in the standings also left them on the outside of the title game due the four-way tiebreaker.
19. UNLV (21): By beating Nevada and holding on to their spot in the top 25, the Rebels will have another shot at Boise State in the Mountain West title game next Friday night.
20. Illinois (22): No major changes for the Fighting Illini after a 10-point win against rival Northwestern wraps Illinois’ regular season with a 9-3 record. It’s the most wins in a single season for Illinois since 2007, and the bowl game will provide an opportunity to log the program’s first 10-win season since 2001.
21. Colorado (23): The Buffaloes put on a show in their 52-0 thrashing of Oklahoma State, capping a 9-3 regular season that included Big 12 title contention, more wins the program has seen since 2016 and possibly a good bit of hardware when it comes to award season for the team’s biggest stars.
22. Missouri (24): The snowy scene in Columbia made for a sloppy game, but Brady Cook, Luther Burden and the Missouri offense made just enough plays late to pull away with a 28-21 rivalry win against Arkansas. The Tigers finish the regular season with a 9-3 record and no real bad losses, making them the perfect candidate to round out a top 25 ballot.
23. Army (25): The Black Knights were able to clinch home-field advantage for the AAC title game with a 29-24 win against UTSA and should see a bump up in the rankings heading into that showdown with Tulane.
24. Syracuse (NR): The Orange were 28th last week in voting points and should see a surge of support after the upset win against Miami. Fran Brown’s team finishes the regular season with a 9-3 record that includes wins over two teams in the current top 25 (Miami and UNLV), which warrants a bump up among those teams on the edge of the ballot.
25. Memphis (NR): With Tulane likely falling out of the rankings, look for Memphis to get enough support to break into the top 25. The Tigers not only were responsible for the Tulane exit by virtue of their 10-point win in New Orleans on Thursday night, but they were 27th in voting points last week with some significant support among the AP voters.
Projected to drop out: No. 18 Tulane, No. 20 Texas A&M
