When Rutgers freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey arrived on campus as the two highest-ranked recruits in program history, there was immediate optimism that the Scarlet Knights could not only reach the NCAA Tournament for the third time this century. High-end projections had them making a run deep into March behind two potential top-five NBA Draft picks.
At 15-17 and projected well outside the bubble, Rutgers’ tournament hopes were dashed following a 97-89 loss to USC in the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday, putting the final touches on one of the biggest what-ifs of the one-and-done era. Lots of teams with top picks have missed the NCAA Tournament over the years. Recent examples include LSU with Ben Simmons, Washington with Markelle Fultz and Georgia with Anthony Edwards (there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020, but the Bulldogs would have been left out had it taken place).
Ten teams in the modern recruiting era have landed two high school prospects ranked in the top five of their respective class. Nine of those squads reached the NCAA Tournament (Duke’s 2024-25 team is the other). Kentucky scored two in John Calipari’s final year with the program last season and lost in the first round of the Big Dance.
Harper and Bailey were both fantastic individually this season, and their draft stock held firm despite the team’s lack of success. However, the talent around the superstar duo wasn’t enough, as Rutgers finished 15-17 overall and 8-12 in Big Ten play.
Behind Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, Duke could become only the second program in the modern recruiting era — after Kentucky — to win a national championship with two top-five recruits.
With Duke still in action, here’s how the other teams that signed two top-five prospects finished their respective seasons.
Rutgers (2024)
Who: Ace Bailey (No. 2) and Dylan Harper (No. 3)
Season result: Projected to miss the NCAA Tournament
Rutgers debuted at the bottom of the preseason AP Top 25 poll but quickly fell out for good following a loss to Kennesaw State in its fifth game. The Scarlet Knights lost three of their next four and struggled to find a rhythm against Big Ten competition. Rutgers went 4-13 against Quad 1 opponents, with the wins coming against UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern and Illinois. When it’s all said and done, this season will be remembered as a massive “what if” because the likelihood of two of the top three ranked players in the same recruiting cycle enrolling at Rutgers again seems unlikely.
Kentucky (2023)
Who: Justin Edwards (No. 3) and Aaron Bradshaw (No. 5)
Season result: Lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament
John Calipari’s final recruiting haul at Kentucky ranked No. 1 in the 2023 cycle. The highest-ranked prospect of the group, Edwards, was touted as a potential No. 1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, but some early season struggles led to a reduced role. Bradshaw missed the first month of the season because of an injury and transferred to Ohio State after an up-and-down campaign. Kentucky lost to Oakland in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in the final game of Calipari’s tenure at the school.
Who: Dereck Lively lll (No. 2), Dariq Whitehead (No. 3) and Kyle Filipowski (No. 4)
Season result: Lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament
In the its season after legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski, Duke brought in three five-star recruits to jump-start a new era. Lively and Whitehead both declared for the 2023 NBA Draft (where they became first-round picks), and Filipowski elected to return to school for his sophomore season. After a loss to Virginia dropped the Duke to 8-6 in ACC play, they went on a hot streak. Duke won 10 consecutive games before falling to Tennessee in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Who: RJ Barrett (No. 1) and Cam Reddish (No. 3)
Season result: Lost in the Elite Eight
Perhaps the best recruiting class in the modern era, Duke was able to sign the top-ranked (Barrett), No. 3 (Reddish) and No. 7 recruits (Zion Williamson) from the 2018 recruiting cycle. The Blue Devils embarked on an exhilarating NCAA Tournament run that included close wins over UCF and Virginia Tech before losing to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Williamson is one of three freshmen (with Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant) to win the Naismith Award.
Who: Harry Giles (No. 3) and Frank Jackson (No. 5)
Season result: Lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament
Duke managed to sign two of the top players in the 2016 recruiting cycle, but the best talent from the class came from outside the top five. Future NBA star Jayson Tatum was the No. 8 player in his class and helped the Blue Devils secure the top-ranked recruiting haul during the 2016 cycle. Duke lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to South Carolina as a No. 2 seed.
Who: Cliff Alexander (No. 4) and Kelly Oubre (No. 5)
Season result: Lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament
The 2014-15 Kansas roster featured seven players who would play at the next level. Alexander and Oubre were two of them. The Jayhawks entered the 2015 NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed and fell to No. 7 seed Wichita State in the second round. Oubre was selected No. 15 in the 2015 NBA Draft, while Alexander went undrafted.
Kentucky (2013)
Who: Julius Randle (No. 2) Andrew Harrison (No. 3) and Aaron Harrison (No. 5)
Season result: Lost in national title game
Kentucky was the first in the 247Sports era to sign three top-five players from the same class. The Wildcats entered the 2014 NCAA Tournament with a 24-10 record and won five consecutive games over Kansas State, Wichita State, Louisville, Michigan, and Wisconsin to reach the national title game. Aaron Harrison hit a handful of clutch buckets throughout the tournament to spark that run.
Who: Shabazz Muhammad (No. 2) and Kyle Anderson (No. 3)
Season result: Lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament
After signing two top players from the 2012 recruiting cycle, UCLA coach Ben Howland was fired after a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. Muhammad was drafted No. 14 in the 2013 NBA Draft after a standout freshman campaign but never lived up to the hype at the next level. Anderson elected to come back to school for his sophomore year and became a late first-round pick the following summer.
Kentucky (2011)
Who: Anthony Davis (No. 1) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (No. 2)
Season result: Won national title
It’s rare to get a talent of Davis’ caliber at the college level. The former Kentucky star is considered one of the best one-and-done players in college basketball history, and he helped lead the Wildcats to their last national title in 2012. Kidd-Gilchrist also was one of the best freshmen in college basketball during his lone season at UK. Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist would eventually go one-two in the 2012 NBA Draft — just like they were slotted in the final 247Sports rankings.
