The forecast for a white Christmas in New York is far from set – but it is a possibility. As of now though, “it’s too early to tell” for western and central New York, said Meteorologist Jon Campbell of the National Weather Service in Buffalo.
The forecast currently predicts that the weather will turn colder later this week – with at least two nights in which a few inches of snow could fall in western New York by Saturday.
“So it is more of a question of can we keep the snow on the ground by Christmas,” he said.
Highs near 50 at the start of the week will drop below freezing by Friday and into the upper teens this weekend, according to the Weather Service. Warmer weather is predicted next week, but that could change.
“It’ll be a close call,” Campbell said.
The Weather Service predicts a similar temperature pattern for northeastern New York. In the New York City area, there the highs predicted to land roughly 10 degrees warmer with more predicted rain than snow, forecasters said.
AccuWeather: Some towns may see wintry weather
The historical probability of a white Christmas across the U.S. and Canada, based on snow depth from an international data set known as ERA5-Land from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
A turbulent weather pattern that pummeled parts of the northeast in recent weeks could deliver another blast of snow and rain to parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley just before the holidays, said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.
“There will be a lot of temperature ups and downs along the East Coast ahead of the holidays,” he said. “Things look good for the few towns and cities around the Great Lakes that have been buried in feet of lake-effect snow this month.”
More: These NY cities rank among the snowiest in America. See the list
Several western New York counties – including parts of Erie, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties – tallied several feet of snow in lake effect snow events in the past month. Officially – however – Buffalo has only tallied 15.1 inches of snow this season as the official Weather Service measurement is taken at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, which was not within a strong lake effect band for either recent storm.
What is a white Christmas?
It need not snow Dec. 25 to fit the Weather Service’s definition of a white Christmas: There just needs to be at least one inch of snow on the ground. A trace amount of snow also does not count. On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 has an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 21 years of data compiled by NOAA.
Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from only 17.6% last year to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009, according to Weather.com.
Map shows historical probability of a white Christmas
The historical probability of seeing a white Christmas.
if you’re looking for a near-surefire way to find a white Christmas, head to Fairbanks, Alaska, which has seen snow on the ground practically every Christmas since weather record keeping started, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2024 is no exception as the city had over two feet of snow on the ground as of Tuesday, Dec. 17, according to the National Weather Service.
Three New York cities are snow central
For big cities of at least 100,000 residents, three in Western New York take the prize for snowiest, according to National Weather Service data.
Thanks primarily to lake-effect snow, the nation’s snowiest big city is Syracuse, which gets roughly 11 feet of snow per winter season, according to the National Weather Service. It’s also one of the nation’s rainiest and cloudiest cities. Other cities in western New York, such as Rochester and Buffalo, average about 9 feet per year, again due to the lake effect.
To date this year – 15.1 inches has fallen in Buffalo, 15 inches has fallen in Syracuse and 10.7 inches was tallied in Rochester. However Binghamton – which is about 70 miles south of Syracuse – has already tallied 25 inches of snow, according to the Weather Service.
“Lake-effect snow generated by the Great Lakes is among the heaviest snowfall in the world,” said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman in an online report.
One of the most noteworthy lake-effect snowfalls in New York occurred over a 10-day period between Feb. 3 and 12, 2007, when 141 inches of snow (that’s 11.75 feet) were measured in the town of Redfield, Oswego County, about 50 miles northeast of Syracuse, near Lake Ontario.
Includes reporting by USA Today reporter Doyle Rice and New York Connect Team reporter Emily Barnes
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Will New York see a white Christmas this year? Here’s what to expect
