As Tua Tagovailoa nears his return, imagine you’re listening to “Unsolved Mysteries,” because this is a quick story about the disappearance of the Miami Dolphins offense and the home run ball. Cover your eyes Dolphins fans.
Miami is averaging 17.5 fewer points per game this year compared with last season, which would be the second-largest dropoff in NFL history behind the 1925 Cleveland Bulldogs. Yes, the Cleveland Bulldogs were a team.
Miami went from one of the most efficient offenses in football in its first two years with Mike McDaniel to one of the worst in the NFL. And the home run ball, one of the most exciting plays in football, has disappeared.
Since and including Week 2 when Tagovailoa was concussed vs. the Bills, Miami’s deep passing numbers are jaw-dropping.
They are 0-for-15 passing 20-plus air yards in that span (Tagovailoa has three of the incompletions by the way) — the only team without a deep ball completion since Week 2. These are insane figures considering:
- The Dolphins led the NFL in completions (71) and completion percentage (48%) on throws of 20-plus air yards in their first 35 games under Mike McDaniel. Tagovailoa also led all quarterbacks in deep ball completions (63) in that time.
- Since Week 2, there’s been 227 completions of 20-plus air yards leaguewide. The other 31 teams have at least four. Jacksonville has 13. Baltimore has allowed 14.
- Miami’s 0-fer streak is one shy of the most consecutive games without a 20-plus air yard completion (five) in the last 10 seasons (2023 Patriots went six)
The before and after heat map of Miami’s completions gives you an idea of how its passing game has become, eh, bad.
The most prolific home run hitter in NFL history, Tyreek Hill, has been rendered useless without Tagovailoa. He’s caught 0-of-6 targets of 20-plus air yards since Week 2, matching the longest streak of his career without a home run (20-plus air yard catch). He had never gone more than two straight games without one since joining Miami prior to this stretch.
Tyreek Hill home run balls (20-plus air-yard receptions) in Dolphins career
- First 34 games: 43 (1.26 per game)
- Last five games: 0
When Tagovailoa returns, it’ll reunite the best home run connection in the game. They have 40 deep ball completions since becoming teammates, 13 more than any other combination (Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb).
And you won’t have to go back too far to remind yourself of how exciting this play can be: Tagovailoa hit Hill for an 80-yard touchdown in Week 1. Hill hasn’t even had an 80-yard game since.
“We’re f—ing back baby — start me this week,” Hill said Wednesday, sending a clear message to all of his fantasy football managers.
Hold your breathe, Dolphins fans. The misery is just about over.
